Iran will hold presidential elections on Friday after a fierce campaign in which nearly all candidates launched strong attacks on the government on issues including the economy, internet restrictions and tough enforcement of women’s headscarf laws.
The vote comes at a perilous moment for Iran, with the incoming president facing a host of challenges, including domestic discontent and divisions, a sluggish economy and a volatile region that has pushed Iran to the brink of war twice this year.
As the race moves into a three-way contest between two conservative candidates and a reformist, many analysts predict that neither will get the necessary 50% of the vote, leaving the reformist candidate and the leading conservative candidate to compete. A runoff election will be held on July 5.
That outcome might have been avoided if a leading conservative candidate dropped out of the race, but in a bitter public feud, pragmatic technocrat General Mohammad Bakr Ghalibaf, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and pragmatic technocrat Saeed Jalili are not involved.
Voting across the country will begin at 8 a.m. local time on Friday, with polls often closing late into the night. But Iran’s elections are tightly controlled, with appointed committees of clerics and jurists vetting all candidates and intimidating opposition voices in the news media. As a result, many Iranians are expected to vote absentee, either in protest or because they don’t believe the ballot box can bring about meaningful change.
This dissatisfaction was exemplified on Wednesday when four young women studying psychology at Tehran University went shopping for cosmetics at Tajrish Bazaar in northern Iran. They said that although they were disturbed by conditions in Iran, they did not plan to vote.
“There is nothing we can do about the situation; we have no hope except ourselves,” said 19-year-old Sohgand. “But we want to stay in Iran and give our children a better life.”
She was wearing tailored black pants and a fitted jacket, and her brown hair was uncovered. But she also had a scarf hanging around her shoulders in case officials asked her to wear it. As for the rule requiring women to wear headscarves, she simply added, “We hate it.”
To counter these attitudes, senior Iranian officials, from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, viewed the vote as an act of defiance against Iran’s enemies and an endorsement of the Islamic Republic’s rule.
“High turnout is a very sensitive issue for us,” Revolutionary Guards chief Gen. Hussein Salami said in a speech this week. “This increases Iran’s power in the world.”
The government expects turnout to be around 50%, higher than in recent presidential and congressional elections but well below previous presidential elections, when more than 70% of voters participated.
Since Mr Khamenei makes all of Iran’s major national decisions, especially in foreign and nuclear policy, voters’ choice depends more on the country’s overall political climate than on any individual candidate.
With two of the initial six candidates withdrawing, voters will choose between Mr Jalili, who has an uncompromising view on domestic and foreign policy; Mr Ghalibaf, speaker of parliament; and reformist candidate Masu Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, a cardiologist and former health minister whose candidacy is somewhat uncertain; Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a conservative A cleric who has held senior positions in the intelligence services, polls suggest he is likely to receive less than 1% of the vote.
The final days of the campaign have exposed tensions between top conservative candidates Gharibaf and Jalili, who disagree over who should drop out to consolidate conservative votes and hope to avoid a runoff.
Video of the event showed little of that materialized at Wednesday’s rally at a stadium in Ghalibaf’s hometown of Mashhad. Salute. “A strong Iran needs a strong president; a strong Iran needs a president who works tirelessly.
But things didn’t go so well for Jalili, who spoke at a rally in the same city that night. Gen. Ismail Ghani, the commander-in-chief of the Quds Force, flew to Mashhad on Wednesday night after previous talks to consolidate the vote failed, forcing the two to hold an emergency meeting, according to Iranian news reports and two officials familiar with the matter. Details of the meeting were revealed by a person who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to speak publicly about the event.
Gen. Ghani said he wanted Jalili to withdraw his troops, given rising tensions in the region, the war in Gaza and a possible conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that could draw Iran into it. Given the issues, he said Ghalibaf, with his military background and pragmatic views, was best suited to lead the government, Iranian people familiar with the meeting said.
In a high-profile public spat, campaign officials from both sides attacked each other on social media, but neither man is relenting.
The latest poll released by Iranian state television on Wednesday, the last day of the campaign, showed Dr Pezeshkian leading with 23.5 per cent, Mr Ghalibaf at 16.9 per cent and Mr Jalili at 16.3 %, 28.5% of whom have not yet made a decision, and the rest are evenly divided.
Analysts said the candidates’ surprisingly candid attacks on the status quo during the televised debates showed that an economy plagued by U.S. sanctions, corruption and mismanagement is a top priority for voters and candidates.
They say economic problems cannot be solved without addressing foreign policy issues, including a confrontation with the United States over its nuclear program and concerns about Iran’s military activity in the region through its network of militant proxy groups.
“The election may not produce fundamental change, but it may produce smaller but significant changes,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. ” Voices from those at the helm who want a different direction may prompt the Islamic Republic to abandon certain positions.”
Mr. Nasr pointed to negotiations between Iran and world powers that culminated in the landmark 2015 nuclear deal under centrist President Hassan Rouhani, Donald J. Trump’s President Donald J. Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018 while imposing tough sanctions on Iran targeting Iranian oil revenues and international bank transfers.
While apathy remains high in most urban areas, Dr Pezeshkian’s voter turnout is expected to be higher in Azerbaijani provinces with larger Turkish and Kurdish populations. He is an Azerbaijani Turk and once served as a city councilor in Tabriz, the main economic center of the northwestern province of East Azerbaijan. Dr. Pezeshkian delivered campaign speeches in his native Turkish and Kurdish.
The doctor was greeted like a folk hero at a rally in Tabriz on Wednesday, where crowds packed a stadium and sang a Turkish nationalist song, according to film and news reports. Azerbaijani activists say the presidential candidate’s identity has generated interest and enthusiasm in the region, as ethnic and religious minorities are poorly represented in senior positions in Iran.
“People want Azerbaijan to return to the highest levels of decision-making in the country,” said Yashar Hakakpour, an Iranian-Azerbaijani human rights activist living in exile in Canada. “Our assessment is that many Azerbaijanis will vote for him.”
Khakapour said that while he and many other activists would not vote and did not believe Iran’s elections were free or fair, he said people who voted for Dr. Pezeshkian wanted better outcomes for their lives and their regions. Small improvements, such as greater investment; reversing the drying up of Lake Urmia, once a major body of water; and most importantly, a greater sense of inclusion.
