Is Germany in Cold War 2.0?

Holes were mysteriously discovered in the Army base’s fence.

An alleged plot to assassinate Germany’s top weapons manufacturer.

The phone was connected to the top brass of the Luftwaffe.

These storylines are not taken from spy novels from the 1960s, but from real events that took place in Germany this year.

Not all of these incidents can be clearly attributed to Moscow, but Germany remains on high alert for possible Russian sabotage due to Berlin’s continued military support for Kiev.

As the hot war between Russia and Ukraine intensifies, there are fears that Europe has plunged into a new Cold War.

“When we think of the Cold War, we tend to think of the 1970s, when the rules of the game were established and accepted,” said Mark Galeotti, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi). Mayak Intelligence Director.

“In a way, we’re in the early days of the Cold War – the fifties and sixties, so it’s a more primitive time.”

But what would a renewed Cold War look like for Europe’s largest economy and a country once cut in half by the Iron Curtain?

The biggest bombshell came last month when CNN reported that U.S. officials had informed Berlin of an alleged Russian plot to assassinate the chief executive of Rheinmetall, Germany’s largest arms company.

The Kremlin denied the report, but German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock slammed Russia for “waging a hybrid war of aggression”. Scholz acted hawkishly.

In February, I met Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger at a groundbreaking ceremony for a new ammunition factory.

The 61-year-old is, to put it crudely, a real “someone,” especially in a world where NATO nations are spending billions to resupply Ukraine and bolster their own security.

His prominence was evident as German Chancellor Schulz, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen dug shovels into the ground in Lower Saxony.

If the plot to assassinate him succeeds, it will cause an uproar in the West.

A security lapse soon afterward allowed spies to eavesdrop on a highly sensitive conversation between senior Luftwaffe officials, which was later broadcast on Russian television.

This was a source of great embarrassment to Berlin, as a Luftwaffe commodore appeared to have allowed spies to dial unsecured lines to gain access to secure calls.

The major incident, however isolated, has fueled accusations that Germany has long been Europe’s “weak link” in counterintelligence because of its fragmented federal system, which is underpinned by a strong focus on personal privacy. .

Weeks later, two German and Russian citizens were arrested on suspicion of planning to sabotage U.S. military installations in Bavaria. Annalena Berbock summoned the Russian ambassador to complain and declared: “We will not allow Putin to bring his terror to Germany.”

Just last week, a hole was found in the fence of a water supply facility at two military bases in North Rhine-Westphalia, raising concerns that someone was trying to contaminate the water supply.

Germany is not the only European country to suffer apparent acts of vandalism, but it hosts a number of U.S. military bases established after World War II.

Mark Galeotti believes that Moscow views Germany as a large but “weak” country, making it an ideal pressure point.

By any standard, the worst known act of sabotage to affect Germany in recent years was the 2022 blowing up of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, which runs from Russia to the Baltic Sea.

Since then, speculation has raged about who ordered the attack, but in a dramatic development, Germany has now issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the “small-budget” operation was privately funded but monitored by Ukraine.

Kyiv rejected the report, calling it nonsense, and while there have been lingering doubts whether President Putin would order the destruction of his own pipeline, it does show that the murky world of espionage can be full of twists and turns.

In any case, every apparent incident of sabotage cannot be immediately and definitely attributed to Russia.

In France, it was far-left activists, not Russian agents, who were accused of attacking the country’s high-speed rail network in the run-up to the Olympics.

Germany also has its own history of extensive far-left armed attacks.

The fact that Ukrainian figures are now in the spotlight over the Nord Stream bombings has sparked new criticism from familiar political factions within Germany over the government’s support for Kiev.

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, called for an end to “aid payments” to Kyiv and “blamed” Nord Stream losses on Ukraine.

The Alternative for Germany has huge support in the former communist east, and outside Berlin you’re more likely to find lingering feelings about Russia and dissatisfaction with the major parties that have dominated national politics since reunification.

So as Cold War comparisons loomed over European security, the politics of the period were also being renewed in Germany in a stark and unexpected way.

In an effort to bolster security, the German government is enacting a new law aimed at making critical infrastructure more resilient.

German Interior Minister Nancy Feser said “maximum protective measures must be taken in all areas”.

Under the Cletis Umbrella Act, operators in critical sectors such as energy, transport and water must adhere to minimum safety standards.

It is the first federal law of its kind in Germany, but it has yet to receive final approval despite rising tensions over the war.

German-made Marder armored vehicles were reportedly used in Ukrainian surprise operations inside Russian territory.

It would mark the breaking of another taboo in German foreign policy since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In addition, the United States’ plan to deploy long-range missiles in Germany from 2026 is also controversial.

When Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Scholz promised a “Zeitenwende,” a turning point in defense and security policy.

But both the government’s supporters and critics acknowledge that it will take time to reverse years of underinvestment in defense and to adjust to a mentality shaped by Germany’s dark past.

Given recent developments, there is a question mark over how long Berlin can hold out.

Mark Galeotti said this is not only about rebuilding defenses, but also about upgrading cybersecurity and improving counterintelligence.

“Security planning does not take place over weeks or months, but over years.”