The two former generals’ focus was more military than political. In the long term, they fear and want to avoid the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) taking control of Gaza, which Galante said would be a “dangerous path” for which Israel would pay a heavy price in “bloodshed and victims.”
The United States agrees. “The top priority is not only that the conflict in Gaza ends as quickly as possible, but that Israel must present a clear plan on how to govern, protect and rebuild Gaza,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a Senate committee hearing this week.
Without this, he said, Israel would face unacceptable choices: prolonged military occupation and insurgency, a resurgence of Hamas, or anarchy and lawlessness. “We believe the Palestinians must govern themselves,” he said.
The United States has also put pressure on Arab countries to agree to form an international force to establish security in Gaza in the short term. The United States will not send its own troops on the ground but hopes countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates will do so. But diplomats say the countries have made clear they will only participate if the West recognizes a Palestinian state, an agreed path to a two-state solution and at the invitation of some kind of Palestinian leadership.
“‘The day after tomorrow’ cannot be separated from the political process; it must be part of a comprehensive plan,” one Arab diplomat told me. “Unless there is a political process, no one will have their feet on the ground.”
Some Arab countries believe the United States is too focused on trying to reach a deal to normalize diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. They acknowledged it could be the key to getting Israel to agree to a broader political solution, but suspected it was seen as a “magic bullet” by some US officials.
They also believe the United States needs to consider Israel’s future more seriously and engage more closely with moderate voices who can win popular support for Palestinian-ruled Gaza. There is also talk of what role Turkey could play in using its influence over Hamas to reach some kind of post-war deal.
The main obstacle to any eventual agreement is Benjamin Netanyahu. He refused to discuss the issue beyond his staunch opposition to any role for the Palestinian Authority. He worries about angering far-right members of the government who support Israel’s long-term occupation. But pressure is mounting on the Prime Minister, who may one day have to make a choice.
“The risk is that there is no ‘day after tomorrow,'” one Western diplomat said. “Israel can do Rafah, Hamas will still be there, there could be another Rafah. Military operations could last for months.”
