President Joe Biden sent a defiant letter to congressional Democrats on Monday morning, making clear: “I am deeply committed to staying in this race.” This follows an interview with ABC News on Friday. An interview with George Stephanopoulos in which he said only providence could force him to drop out of the 2024 Democratic presidential race.
“If the Lord Almighty came down and said, ‘Joe, get out of the race,’ I would be out of the race,” Biden said. “The Lord Almighty will not come down.”
That interview failed to convince many Democrats that Biden had the stamina to defeat Donald Trump in November, or even that he was cognitively fit for a second term as president. But make no mistake: He fully intends to continue his campaign. Not only that, it’s extraordinary Not too possible He will be forced out of the race, and pundits who predict Biden’s eventual exit are glossing over some hard truths about power and politics that Biden want to President again.
Currently, there is a general consensus in Washington, D.C., that Biden’s immediate fate is uncertain at best. The previously neutral to supportive political media has turned on him outright, driven in part by betrayal—reporters who feel cheated by the White House about the extent of his flaws—and despair over his dwindling reelection chances; now countless mainstream news organizations Everyone is calling for him to quit. Some congressional Democrats have backed the calls, and Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill are currently meeting to discuss Biden’s future. Major donors want him gone. Hollywood is out.
These defections affected betting markets. On PredictIt, Biden’s odds of winning the nomination dropped from about 80% on July 1 to 40% a week later. all weekend, New York Times Columnist Ross Douthat believes that not only should Biden withdraws, as he may well end up doing.
“I think Biden will withdraw, despite his current protests,” Douthat wrote.
The columnist did note one major counterexample: Donald Trump, who himself faced open defiance during the 2016 campaign. enter hollywood tape. Leading Republicans, including Mitt Romney and John McCain, the two newest Republican presidential candidates at the time, called on Trump to withdraw from the race, but Trump rejected their demands. He remained the nominee and even won the presidency.
Then, in 2020, the Republican National Convention held competitive primaries and scheduled debates with other candidates. (Trump did not attend.) Conservative media hailed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as Trump’s successor. The party’s leaders are doing everything they can to get rid of Trump. None of these work. Trump’s belief that he should run for president again is a stronger motivation for trump More important than the party’s belief that he should quietly go away.
Douthat acknowledged this dynamic, but wrote that the situation is very different on the Democratic side. Douthat believes that unlike Trump, Democratic politicians actually care about what their thought leaders think of them. Furthermore, “the Democratic Party still appears to be more capable than the Republican Party of functioning as a party and making decisions.” Republican elites are at the mercy of Trump and his supporters, while Democratic elites face a more pliant, quiet base.
These are striking points. The problem is that they don’t matter.
In order for the Democratic National Convention to nominate someone else when it convenes in August, Biden must be persuaded to voluntarily step aside: He has won over the delegates, they have the “conscience” to bind them to vote for him, and the delegates have won support from the representatives. Biden is the leader of the Democratic Party; no higher authority can remove him from the ticket (except the Almighty).
That means Democrats who want to nominate other candidates will have to convince Biden to go. It’s going to be a tough sell because Biden Want to be president again. (If he didn’t want re-election, he wouldn’t run.)
This should surprise no one. This may seem very basic, but politicians—especially those with the most influence—often seek to retain power. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) recently died in office, and she was not the first senator to die in office. Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s refusal to retire cost Democrats a key Supreme Court seat. In 2022, Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is running for re-election; he is now 90 years old.
Trump is willing to risk almost anything — including his freedom — to maintain control of the Republican Party and regain the presidency. Polls showing that other Republicans have a better chance of defeating Biden in 2024 have little bearing on Trump; Trump wants Trump to be president, not ordinary Republicans.
Maybe Biden is less self-centered and at some point puts the interests of the party ahead of his own ambitions. If Biden is convinced that he has no shooting When he defeats Trump, he will step aside if some charismatic Democratic rival has a good chance of defeating Trump. These conditions have not yet been met; they are far from being met.
According to recent polls, Biden is likely to lose to Trump. But his only likely successor — Vice President Kamala Harris — fared only slightly better. A CNN poll showed Biden trailing Trump by 6 percentage points and Harris trailing Trump by 2 percentage points.
To be clear, if you’re a Democrat and your only goal is to maximize your odds of beating Trump, this may be a meaningful difference. Changing candidates at this point would be crazy and potentially destabilizing, and historically Harris has been rated less favorably than Biden, but it’s certainly possible to construct an argument that Democrats should take the risk.
Biden is no However, Democrats. If he withdraws, his chances of becoming president again drop to approx. zero. No one can explain why Biden — from Biden’s perspective — should do this.
Democrats need to convince their president that his erratic debate performance makes his re-election chances extremely low, so there’s not much to lose by withdrawing now. They also need to show that Harris is so much more attractive to voters that Biden’s continued participation in the race is giving her an actually winnable election. Again, this is a tough sell — especially when the people controlling Biden are Jill Biden and Hunter Biden, whose judgment on the matter may be far from objective.
It’s possible, of course, that Democrats can overcome these significant hurdles and convince Biden to withdraw. There is also the possibility of a more serious health emergency for Biden that would indeed require him to withdraw. Unless that happens, I can safely predict that Biden will be the Democratic presidential nominee in November. You can bet.
I have a $100 bet right now @robbysoave On Biden’s exit. https://t.co/eYhG8aPctV
— Brianna Wu (@BriannaWu) July 6, 2024
