A new Arizona poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 44%-41% in the key swing state.
AZ Highground wrote about their poll:
The survey showed that Harris had a narrow lead from the beginning in the presidential race – receiving 44.4% of the vote, compared to 41.6% of likely voters who supported Trump. The 2.8-percentage-point lead was within the survey’s margin of error. Harris’ lead is supported by 86.5% of Democratic voters, while Trump Support among Republican voters stands at 79.5%, a decline witnessed by other MAGA candidates in Arizona in 2022.
Harris has the support of a majority of female voters (51% Harris/36% Trump), while Trump leads among male voters by 10 points (37.2% Harris/47.7% Trump). Harris has won a lot of support among young voters, while Trump’s biggest supporters are voters aged 50 to 64. Both candidates are evenly split between Arizona’s all-important 65-and-older demographic.
In the Senate race, Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by 11 points (rounded: 50%-39%).
Arizona has been a Trump election target. The state is one of the main reasons he has made immigration and border issues his top priority.
Trump needs Arizona. Harris has multiple paths to the White House open to her. She can cross the Sun Belt by winning Arizona, Nevada and Georgia and one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, or she can win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. If Trump loses Arizona, he must win Georgia and Pennsylvania to get 270 electoral votes.
For Democrats, it’s a good sign that Harris’ momentum is starting to show up in polls in key battleground states like Arizona.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of Society of Professional Journalists and American Political Science Association
