British Broadcasting CorporationAlmost daily cross-border attacks since October between Israel and Hezbollah, a powerful Iran-backed militia and Lebanese political movement, have killed hundreds and forced tens of thousands from both sides to flee their homes, raising concerns Contained violence can escalate into full-blown conflict.
However, amid strikes and counterattacks, there were signs they were trying to avoid a major confrontation. But miscalculation is always a risk, and Saturday’s attack on the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights may have been that risk.
Israel blamed Hezbollah for an attack at a football stadium that killed at least 12 people, including children, in the deadliest attack in current hostilities and pledged a response.
“Israel will not ignore this brutal attack,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement released by his office. “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price that has not been paid so far.”
Hezbollah denied being behind the attack.
However, before the scale of the attack became clear, the group said it targeted the Hermon Brigade with Iranian-made Farak missiles, one of several carried out that day. The base is located on the slopes of Mount Hermon, about 3 kilometers (two miles) from the site of the explosion, increasing the likelihood of the missile missing its target.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said intelligence information suggested the attack was carried out by Lebanese Hezbollah, calling the group’s denials “lies.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said that “all indications” pointed to the missile being launched by Hezbollah and that the United States supported “Israel’s right to protect its citizens from terrorist attacks.”
Well, Lebanon is awaiting a possible major response from Israel.
Getty ImagesHezbollah’s attacks began on October 8, a day after Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, and the group said it supported the Palestinians in Gaza. To date, more than 450 people have been reported killed in Lebanon, including about 350 Hezbollah fighters and at least 100 civilians. In Israel, 23 civilians and at least 17 soldiers were killed.
In Lebanon, most of the Israeli attacks have hit the south, where villages have been destroyed and deserted, and the eastern Bekaa Valley, two areas where Hezbollah operates. An Israeli offensive targeting hitherto untouched areas, including parts of the capital Beirut, could push the fighting into a dangerous and unpredictable phase.
Hezbollah is seen as a more powerful enemy than Hamas and has been preparing for another major conflict with Israel since its last conflict with Israel in 2006, which has caused serious damage to both sides . According to Western estimates, the organization has about 150,000 rockets and missiles that could overwhelm Israel’s advanced air defense systems. The arsenal also includes precision-guided missiles capable of penetrating deep into Israeli territory.
Israeli authorities have repeatedly said the group’s attacks are unacceptable and have faced growing pressure to take action to allow displaced residents to return to northern communities. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), which is still conducting a large-scale operation against Hamas in Gaza, is ready to launch an offensive against Hezbollah, military officials said, but details of the operation remain unclear.
Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly said the group does not want an all-out war with Israel, but that it is ready. Last month, he said the group had deployed only a fraction of its weapons and warned Israel that any war would be fought “without restrictions or rules.” A major operation against the group could involve other Iranian-backed militias in the region that are part of Tehran’s so-called “axis of resistance.”
Any war would have devastating effects on both countries, especially for Lebanon, which has been in a state of permanent crisis for more than five years. The economy collapsed, an estimated 80 percent of the population fell into poverty, and political disputes hampered presidential elections for nearly two years. The government has limited, if any, influence over Hezbollah, which, like Hamas, is considered a terrorist organization by Britain, the United States and other countries.
But total war is not inevitable. Diplomats sought to avoid a major escalation of hostilities, with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib telling the BBC that authorities “asked Hezbollah not to retaliate”.
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Oren Mamostan said the “only way” to prevent conflict was to implement UN Resolution 1701, which aimed to end the 2006 war. The text included the withdrawal of armed groups from southern Lebanon, between the Litani River and the Blue Line (the unofficial border with Israel), but it was never fully implemented.
Mamostam said now was the “last moment” to prevent war through diplomacy.
