The liberal media’s all-out coverage of Kamala Harris echoes Democrats’ efforts to create excitement about Harris joining the 2024 race.
Liberal pollster Nate Silver isn’t buying it, saying Trump remains the favorite to win in November.
This is in stark contrast to what we hear almost everywhere in the media.
The New York Post reported:
Nate Silver says Trump remains the favorite to run for president in 2024 despite Harris’ rise
Even after Democrats dramatically regained the presidency and gained apparent momentum, noted election analyst and statistics guru Nate Silver still thinks former President Donald Trump is the favorite.
His election prediction model puts Trump’s chance of winning the Electoral College at 61.3 percent, compared with Vice President Kamala Harris’s 38.1 percent chance.
Silver previously predicted Trump had a 65.7% chance of defeating President Joe Biden during the model’s rollout last month.
In his latest assessment, Silver included a series of polling averages that give Trump a slight advantage nationally and in most battleground states, except in Wisconsin, where Harris leads. …..
FiveThirtyEight is one of the few election forecasts predicting that Biden is more likely to win the 2024 presidential election.
Hot Air’s Jazz Shaw commented:
As a result, Nate Silver thinks Donald Trump’s chances of winning have dropped from 65.7% to 61.3%. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has climbed from mid-30s to 38.1%. That’s still a pretty healthy profit margin. Not that this analysis can’t be wrong, but you’d have to dig deep into history to find examples of Nate missing calls.
I see him quoted on CNN almost as much as on Fox News. In this sense, silver has become the gold standard for election analysis, if you’ll pardon the precious metal pun. His predictions are based not on his own political preferences (whatever those are) but on the hit and miss rates of other pollsters he tracks.
This last point is important. Silver just calls this based on the data.
We’ll find out soon enough whether he’s right.
