Mexicans will vote on Sunday in an election that will be groundbreaking on several fronts: It will be the largest race in the country’s history, it is already one of the most violent in recent years, and it will likely For the first time in forever, a woman will serve as president.
According to polls, the two leading contenders are roughly evenly split among the electorate, and both are women. The front-runner is climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum, who represents the ruling party and its party allies. Her closest rival is Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman whose ballot also includes some opposition parties.
Sheinbaum has held a double-digit lead in polls for months, but the opposition argued the numbers understated their candidate’s true support. Galvez said in an interview that “there is an anti-system vote” and if Mexicans turn out on Sunday, “we will win.”
“Her mentality was 30 points ahead,” Ms. Galvez said of her rival. “But she’s going to get the surprise of a lifetime.”
The contest illustrates the dramatic political progress made by Mexican women in recent years, who were not allowed to vote until 1953. Ms. Galvez is a senator and Ms. Scheinbaum runs the capital, one of the largest cities in the Western Hemisphere.
“For the first time in the 200 years since the founding of the Republic, we women will receive the highest honor our people can bestow upon us: serving as President of Mexico,” Ms. Scheinbaum said in a recent speech.
Much of the campaign, however, has focused on one figure who is not on the ballot but has huge influence: powerful incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
López Obrador has been a fixture in Mexican politics for decades, running for president in three previous elections before winning in a landslide in 2018.
While widely popular, López Obrador is a polarizing figure, drawing adoration from die-hard fans and vitriol from critics. His government has doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to lift millions out of poverty, while empowering the military and taking measures that many warn will weaken democratic institutions.
His dominance has upended establishment politics, prompting an uneasy alliance of three parties on the right, center and left that are now backing Ms Galvez.
Ms. Shinebaum appealed to voters primarily by promising to continue his legacy. Ms Galvez has positioned herself as an alternative to those dissatisfied with Mr López Obrador’s leadership and has vowed to reverse many of his policies.
“The results of this election are testament to the impact López Obrador has had on Mexican politics,” said Mexican political analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor. “He is the one who defines political identity and political stance. center.”
Whoever succeeds López Obrador will face serious challenges.
Cartel violence continues to plague the country, displacing large numbers of people and fueling one of the deadliest election cycles in Mexico’s recent history. López Obrador has directed the government to focus on addressing the drivers of violence rather than waging war on criminal groups, a strategy he calls “hugs not bullets.”
Ms Galvez slammed the practice.
“Enough hugs for criminals, enough bullets for citizens,” she quipped on the campaign trail. She said she would withdraw the armed forces from civilian activities and direct them to focus on fighting organized crime while strengthening the police force.
Ms. Scheinbaum said she would continue to focus on the social causes of violence but would also work to reduce impunity and strengthen the National Guard.
On the economic front, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is now the United States’ largest trading partner, benefiting from the recent shift of manufacturing away from China. The currency is so strong that it has been labeled the “super peso.”
But there are some problems brewing. The federal deficit has soared to about 6% this year, leaving state oil company Pemex heavily in debt and straining public finances.
“The fiscal risks we are currently facing are the likes of which we have not seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of the Mexico Assessment Center, a public policy research group.
Another challenge involves giving the armed forces broad new responsibilities, tasked with managing ports and airports, operating airlines and building railways through the Mayan jungle. Scheinbaum said there was “no militarization” in the country, while signaling her willingness to reassess the military’s involvement in public enterprises.
Beyond these pressing domestic challenges, the fate of the next president will be intertwined with the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. President Joe Biden’s re-election victory would provide continuity, but Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House could be unpredictable.
Trump’s plan to mass round up undocumented people and deport them to their home country could target the millions of Mexicans living in the United States. He has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
There’s also the worsening fentanyl problem, which the U.S. government says cartels use to produce fentanyl in Mexico using chemicals imported from China. Mr. Trump has suggested military action to combat the fentanyl trade.
Dealing with such pressure from Washington, even in the form of inflammatory campaign rhetoric, could be a challenge for Mexico’s next president.
Scheinbaum said Mexico would have a “good relationship” with a Trump or Biden presidency, and her campaign said it would continue efforts to curb the flow of migrants.
Ms. Galvez said she would also like to work with both men.
Asked how she would deal with Trump, she said: “I’m used to dealing with toxic masculinity.”
“Trump, in my opinion, is fundamentally a pragmatic guy,” she said, adding: “What he wants is to solve the border problem and the fentanyl problem, and I think we can.”
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega contributed reporting from Mexico City.
