Pollster Nate Silver said Monday that President Joe Biden’s debate performance puts him at serious risk of not becoming the Democratic nominee in November, calling it one of the “craziest claims” in political history as he seeks reelection. .
“I think the likelihood of Biden not being the nominee on November 5th is more underestimated than overestimated,” Silver wrote in a post on X on Monday.
Silver added that Democrats face many risks in maintaining Biden as party leader. Biden is already the oldest president in the history of the United States. If re-elected, he will be 86 years old at the end of his second term. His previous record holder, Ronald Reagan, was 77 when he left office in 1989.
Biden’s ‘disaster’ debate performance sparks media meltdown, calls for him to drop out of 2024 race
Pollster Nate Silver said Monday that President Joe Biden’s debate performance puts him at serious risk of not becoming the Democratic nominee in November. (Getty Images)
“Asking the public to keep the man they saw on Thursday as president until he is 86 is a fundamentally bad idea,” Silver wrote, explaining that Biden would be leaving “[p]It’s likely that he won’t be allowed to give up the position rationally or easily.
Silver wrote: “[p]Post-debate polls” are bad now, but they could get worse.
He warned that further “senior moments” for Biden “may not survive” and that the weaker his campaign becomes, the more likely people are to abandon the campaign.
The campaign has weathered tough calls and skepticism from donors, as well as a growing number of liberal media figures urging Biden to drop out of the race over concerns about losing to former President Trump. Silver said nominating Biden for a four-year term is “fundamentally untenable.”
“This is one of the craziest ‘demands’ in the history of American politics,” Silver said of re-electing Biden.
Silver also predicted that Trump “could narrowly win the Electoral College” in a showdown with Biden.
In Silver’s first presidential election prediction last week, the former president was firmly favored to win the White House. Allies panic.
Pollster Nate Silver gives Donald Trump a 66% chance of winning the presidential election
Silver also predicted that former President Trump “could narrowly win the Electoral College” in a showdown with Biden. (Wyn McNamee/Getty Images/Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Silver’s predictive model, based on 40,000 simulations, found Trump had a 65.7 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared with Biden’s 33.7 percent chance. Biden won the popular vote by a slight margin. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the presidency by narrow margins in a series of battleground states.
The Biden and Trump campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Fox News Digital.
Fox News’ Hannah Penrek contributed to this report.
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