April 30, 2024 – In recent weeks, COVID-19 forecasters have reported Wastewater monitoring.nickname flirtthey threaten to trigger a new wave of coronavirus infections, which have recently bottomed out after surging in December.
Models released last week Jay WeilandA data scientist who has accurately predicted the coronavirus wave since the start of the pandemic has warned of an impending surge. “He’s someone that a lot of experts like me follow because his judgments have been pretty accurate so far,” said Megan L. Ranney, MD, is dean of the Yale School of Public Health.
The time is ripe for reinfection
What’s more, FLiRT also has some worrisome features, such as changes in the spike protein, that could help, Ranney said. SARS-CoV-2, The virus that causes COVID-19 takes root in the body, colonizes it, and makes people sick.
Host vulnerabilities are another troubling factor because only twenty two% of U.S. adults have received the latest COVID-19 vaccine. Since many people may not have had the virus for some time, they are ripe for reinfection.
“We have a group of people whose immunity is waning, which increases our susceptibility to waves,” said Thomas A. Russo M.d.cUpregulate Institute for Infectious Diseases, Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, University at Buffalo.
There is also worrying data suggesting that even people who have been vaccinated against the latest coronavirus vaccines may not be well protected against a potential surge in cases. A preprint Research released this week by Harvard University researchers shows compelling evidence that the latest boosters don’t work well against JN.1, the latest dominant variant, and its FLiRT offshoot. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.
JN.1 The virus spreads globally during the winter, but still accounts for 95% of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Omicron variant, The virus has been circulating in some form since 2021. JN.1 There were almost no cases in mid-November, but that quickly jumped to 21% in December. 85% By the third week of January.
In recent years, the COVID-19 epidemic wave has also entered a predictable rhythm, with larger waves in winter and smaller peaks in mid-to-late summer, mainly due to people staying in air-conditioned indoor environments with poor ventilation for long periods of time. hot.
“Taking all of these factors into consideration, if I were to look into my crystal ball, I would say that at some point this summer we will have another wave or increase in cases and hospitalizations,” he said.
Protect yourself from the summer rush
While there are some questions about how new boosters will protect against the latest variants, staying up to date on vaccinations is still the best way to protect yourself. For those who haven’t gotten their hands on the latest booster yet, time is of the essence. For people over 65 or immunocompromised, Department of Disease Control It is recommended to give the second updated COVID-19 booster shot 4 months after the last booster shot.
“Assuming the virus continues to evolve and our immunity declines, the general population may still need annual booster shots to provide protection,” Laney said.
Many experts say we need to take the virus more seriously. In general, if you’re sick, don’t go to work, go out, or travel to give yourself time to recover and avoid making everyone around you sick.this Department of Disease Control People are advised to stay home and isolate until their fever is gone and their overall symptoms have improved for at least 24 hours. And if you are in a densely populated area with poor ventilation, a mask is still a simple and effective protective tool.
New treatments such as monoclonal antibodies pongadaThe emergency use authorization granted by the FDA in March may also help protect those who are particularly vulnerable to spring or summer surges. Shirin Mazumder, MD, infectious disease physician at Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare in Memphis. This medication may be used as a preventive measure in anyone who is moderately to severely immunocompromised.This drug is given by intravenous injectionforward Patients may be exposed to COVID-19. It is designed for people who are unlikely to build up enough immunity and may need more protection from the virus.
“In addition to vaccinations and other preventive measures, this is another tool that can help people,” said Ma Zongde.
Risk of long-term COVID-19 infection increasing
Vaccination is also important to prevent long-term COVID-19, according to a study published in March 2024 Lancet Respiratory Medicine. For Grace McComsey, MD, who leads long-term COVID-19 recovery research at University Hospitals Cleveland Health System, the biggest concern isn’t the risk of acute illness.
Long-term COVID-19 is becoming a bigger problem for people who may be less afraid of acute COVID-19, she said.Research published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases It has recently been shown that many people end up with long-term COVID-19 (a disease characterized by chronic illness) Fatigue, brain fog, and heart and lung problems – not necessarily severe attacks from infection.
The number of long-term COVID-19 cases is also increasing, with 6.8% of Americans reporting long-term COVID-19 symptoms, up from 5.3% in 2022. Have experienced this symptom. Department of Disease Control. “Long-acting COVID-19 is what I’m most worried about right now because it’s rising in numbers and it can make you chronically ill even if an acute infection doesn’t,” he said. McConcy.
We’re not sure what this variant will do, but we do know that so far, the coronavirus has been great at spreading disease and evading immunity. Whether this is the next prevalent variant is difficult to determine, McConsey said, but if it’s not this, another variant will certainly emerge.
“We need to respect this virus and take it seriously because whether we like it or not, it’s here and it’s still making people very sick,” she said.
