The mainstream media ignored part of a new NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll that showed a guilty verdict would make 17 percent of voters less likely to vote for Trump.
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NPR reports on the new poll:
Overall, two-thirds (67%) said a guilty verdict had no impact on their vote; three-quarters (76%) said the same about an acquittal.
…
A small but perhaps significant group of core Trump voters also say they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he is convicted — people who live in small towns (17%), whites without college degrees (14%), those living in rural areas (11%) and Republicans (10%).
Only 11% of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.
Seventeen percent of voters are likely to rule out a candidate in a close election where the margin of victory in a swing state may be 5 percentage points or less. The bigger problem for Trump is that the Republican Party is showing signs of not being united behind him, so if support among swing state Republicans drops even a few percentage points, the former president will be doomed.
These numbers are also just a starting point. If Trump is convicted, Democrats will use their fundraising advantage to instill in voters the idea that a convicted felon cannot be elected president.
The mainstream media looks at these numbers from a national perspective, but a presidential election is a 50-state election. It doesn’t matter how the verdict fares in national polls. What matters is how voters in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia feel about voting for a likely convicted felon for president.
Even a small dip in support could be enough to spell the end of Donald Trump.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a member of the White House press corps and a congressional reporter for PoliticusUSA. Jason holds a BA in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, particularly social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of Society of Professional Journalists and American Political Science Association
