Peace talks fail again, famine rages

Famine is ravaging Sudan.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which calls itself the government of Sudan, took a small step towards alleviating famine earlier this week by allowing 15 United Nations aid trucks to cross the border from Chad to deliver food to the hungry.

Aid agencies hope it will open the door to a comprehensive rescue effort that could save millions of lives.

But they worry it’s just a token concession – too little, too late.

Four weeks ago, the United Nations-endorsed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system said famine conditions existed in parts of Darfur, Sudan’s westernmost region.

This is not surprising.

Sudan’s humanitarian disaster has been the world’s worst for months. More than half of Sudan’s 45 million people require emergency relief assistance.

More than 12 million people have been displaced, including nearly 2 million refugees in neighboring countries such as Chad, Egypt and South Sudan.

Some food security experts fear that as many as 2.5 million people could die from hunger by the end of this year.

While Sudan’s hunger has its roots in decades of economic mismanagement, the legacy of devastating war and drought caused by the climate crisis, today’s famine is triggered by the use of hunger as a weapon.

War broke out last April between the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohammed Hamdan Dagolo, who Known as “Hemedti”.

The war soon devastated the Sudanese community.

Like a swarm of human locusts, MSF militiamen rampaged through the capital, Khartoum, pillaging everything they could to loot and resell. The forces also damaged vital infrastructure such as hospitals and schools.

Everywhere MSF moves forward, the same story is repeated.

The Gezira and Sennar granary areas along the Blue Nile had a large number of irrigated farms, but they were destroyed.

People there were hungry for the first time in generations.

Hunger is most acute in Darfur, especially in El Fasher, the only city in the region still controlled by the army and its local allies.

The city is surrounded by SSF and relies on precarious supply routes across the battle lines. It was in the Zamzam displacement camp near El Fasher that aid group Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) first reported cases of famine and malnutrition.

For its part, the army has fallen back on its time-tested strategy of cutting off rebel-held areas. The logic is that if external supplies can be cut off, MSF’s local supporters will become dissatisfied and some of its troops may defect.

This strategy worked well during the long war in southern Sudan from 1983 to 2005.

The Sudanese Armed Forces control Port Sudan, the country’s only port and main import route. More importantly, the United Nations recognizes the Singapore Armed Forces as a sovereign government.

Although there are no Sudanese armed forces within 100 miles (160 kilometers) of the Chadian border where weapons smugglers freely cross, U.N. lawyers insist that WFP trucks must obtain official government permission to travel within a few miles of Chadian border towns. Adre follows the sandy road into Darfur.

The Singapore Armed Forces has played its sovereignty card to the fullest extent.

In June, Sudan’s ambassador to the United Nations, Haris Idris Haris Mohammed, denounced rhetoric about hunger as a conspiracy by the country’s enemies to justify intervention.

He threatened a “Biblical Armageddon” if the United Nations declared a famine.

IPC experts evaluated the data, called his bluff, and declared a famine.

The Sudanese Armed Forces gave in and opened the Adre crossing, but it only lasted three months.

They allowed only 15 of the 131 U.N. aid trucks waiting at the border to pass, then insisted on starting negotiations on the inspection regime.

Aiding Veterans expects the generals to use every trick in their bureaucratic handbook to slow down the approval process.

Darfur needs thousands of truckloads of food every week, not convoys.

Delivering food to Chad from the nearest port on the West African coast takes weeks.

To feed the hungry, every road needs to be opened – from Port Sudan, South Sudan, to across the deserts from Libya and Egypt.

The Sudanese Local Relief Committee is also in urgent need of funds.

A comprehensive aid effort requires the warring parties to agree to a ceasefire and an end to looting and extortion.

But there is no sign they are willing to do so.

Peace talks in Geneva ended on Friday without substantial progress. The conference was hosted by Switzerland and co-convened by the United States and Saudi Arabia.

U.S. envoy Tom Periello has high hopes for the meeting. He wants the two warring generals to meet face to face and sign a ceasefire.

But the commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces, General Burhan, refused to go or even send a high-level delegation.

He argued that MSF should first withdraw its troops from civilian communities – essentially asking them to evacuate from the territory they occupy – as a precondition for negotiations.

Perillo tempered his expectations and ultimately settled on holding close meetings and phone calls, including from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in hopes of clearing the way for humanitarian aid.

What he has achieved is enough to show that all is not over yet and talks will resume at a specific date in the future.

But diplomats know that no progress is possible unless the main backers on both sides – Forces Without Borders, the United Arab Emirates, the Sudanese Armed Forces, Saudi Arabia and Egypt – reach an understanding.

Competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over who should lead the region has so far stalled peace efforts.

Although the UAE denies this, there is evidence that the UAE supports Doctors Without Borders with money and guns, while Saudi Arabia favors the Sudanese Armed Forces.

The UAE had not wanted to attend the talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, hoping that any breakthrough would be attributed to their Saudi rivals.

At the same time, the Saudis do not want to see the UAE decide who will lead Sudan’s next government.

Representatives of two Arab countries participated in the Geneva talks as observers. But until top Arab decision-makers meet, it’s just a diplomatic courtesy.

Meanwhile, fighting continues and hunger intensifies.

Sudanese remain hopeful that, unlike previous civil wars that lasted for years or even decades, this one will end quickly and peacefully.

But the signs are not promising.

Alex de Waal is executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.