Four days in Asia. That’s all Russian President Vladimir V. Putin needs to anger Washington, weaken Beijing and disrupt Indo-Pacific nations already scrambling to grapple with a chaotic world order.
With stops this week in Pyongyang and Hanoi, draped in communist red, Putin left behind a redrawn map of risks in Asia. North Korea is at the center: a rogue nuclear state that regularly threatens its neighbors and was suddenly thrust into power by Russia’s promises of advanced military aid and a mutual defense pact.
Putin has also signed at least a dozen agreements with Vietnam – an increasingly important country for China and the United States as they compete for influence – insisting that a “reliable security architecture” cannot be achieved through ” “closed military politics” to establish. group”.
The trip was both provocative and destructive. It suggests that the power struggle between the United States and China, sometimes seen as a new Cold War, is not as binary as it seems, and that there appears to be a deeper sense of unease in many countries in the region after this week.
Putin’s emergence and his threats, bold one minute and vague the next, complicate their already difficult calculations around security and great power competition.
The Indo-Pacific has been beset by geopolitical jockeying between the United States and China over the past few years, primarily over China’s claims to Taiwan and China’s increasing militarization in the South China Sea.
In May, China conducted two days of intensive naval and air force exercises near Taiwan, which it called “severe punishment.” The drills come after Taiwan’s new president pledged to defend the sovereignty of the self-governing island, which Beijing considers a lost territory.
Just this week, another flashpoint – the South China Sea – moved closer to conflict. Chinese and Philippine ships collided near the disputed archipelago on Monday, injuring a Philippine navy sailor after months of a bitter standoff at the turquoise chokepoint of global trade. The Philippines is a U.S. ally required by treaty to help in the event of war, expanding the potential influence.
Many countries in the region are already beefing up their military capabilities in response to pressure from China and uncertainty about how far Sino-US competition may develop.
On top of these concerns, the region is also rattled by the U.S. presidential election, not to mention a new report this month showing China is “significantly” expanding its nuclear capabilities, a headache that has become increasingly common in the region. Commonplace.
Now Mr. Putin has induced some more. With his embrace of North Korea, including his public threats to better arm Kim Jong Un’s military, he has effectively added another potential crisis to his list of worries in Asia, reigniting a feud on the Korean peninsula.
Officials in South Korea and Japan, North Korea’s declared enemies, were particularly alarmed. The two countries are already discussing strengthening defenses and getting closer to the United States and each other, especially since Kim Jong Un’s rhetoric has become decidedly more hostile toward both countries in recent months.
U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel described Putin’s sudden activities in Asia as “your worst fears coming true.”
“What Russia just did is they told us that they were going to be the primary organizer of rogue states that develop nuclear weapons, violate the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and allow countries subject to U.N. sanctions to escape sanctions,” he said.
Peter Tesch, Australia’s ambassador to Moscow from 2016 to 2019, stressed that Putin prefers to keep the world in chaos because he believes Russia benefits from unbalancing other countries. Disinformation and partnerships with other provocateurs have become Putin’s tenets.
“He was happy for Russia to be the stinkiest, fartiest uncle at the barbecue,” Mr. Tesch said. “The signal is, ‘Yes, I am a disruptor. I can act in ways that increase the complexity of what you have to manage.
As North Korea’s largest trading partner and arguably North Korea’s greatest influence, China must also deal with its influence. This could include pressure to clarify what its “unlimited” friendship with Russia means for China’s stated goal of stabilizing the Korean peninsula.
Some analysts believe Putin has thought of all this. He may have strengthened ties with Kim Jong Un, who embraced him at the airport, a move both to scare the United States and to frustrate Chinese leader Xi Jinping for not doing more to help Russia prevail in Ukraine.
“If Putin can’t get everything he wants from Beijing, he will look to get it elsewhere, and there are not many supermarkets that can satisfy his wish list – weapons, labor and a willingness to provoke Washington,” Samuel said. ” Green is professor of Russian politics at King’s College London. “Iran is one of them. North Korea is another.
“The key is that while Putin acknowledges his dependence on China, he cannot let Beijing determine the course of the war – because as the war develops, so does Putin.”
In a way, Putin’s trip to Asia is also a potent reminder of Russia’s historical military ties: North Korea, India and Vietnam are just a few of the countries that have relied heavily on Russian hardware for decades, building ties for training and Maintenance deeply integrates Moscow into the region.
But even before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, those relationships were already fractured: Russian arms sales to Southeast Asia fell from $1.2 billion in 2014 to $89 million in 2021, according to independent research. Putin has tried to delay a clean break and even diversify dramatically.
If Putin’s posture toward North Korea does end up intensifying the arms race in Asia, Moscow stands to benefit, too: weapons from Russia do more than heighten the risk of chaos when shared with countries like North Korea. They also bring in revenue, much needed for a Russian economy squeezed by sanctions, war, inflation and 16% interest rates.
The focus of Putin’s visit to Hanoi is to seal the deal. Most are confidential, but analysts predict some may later be defense-related, with financing aimed at circumventing international sanctions – possibly in the form of payments for South China Sea oil and gas rights.
“Vietnam has not had a major upgrade to its Army in years, but that upgrade is said to be coming,” said Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. “You may see Vietnam buying new Russian tanks. “
Nguyen The Phuong, who studies Vietnamese military affairs at Australia’s University of New South Wales, said Vietnam also needs new fighter jets and larger warships to match the way Beijing uses to mark territory Hanoi also claims in the South China Sea.
He added that high-stakes security dynamics in Asia put countries like Vietnam in a difficult position. “Western weapons are expensive and politically sensitive,” he said.
But will Vietnam use new Russian ships to counter China?
For many countries, Putin’s trip prompted another round of such vexing questions. Beijing clearly sides with Moscow on the war in Ukraine. Putin visited Beijing in May, and while his trip to North Korea may unsettle Xi Jinping, analysts do not expect a major rupture in relations.
Angering one leader may result in punishment from the other leader, or both.
“I think there are concerns about the strengthening of ties between Russia and China,” Grossman said, “and the possibility of the two countries joining forces to deal with small and medium-sized businesses.”
Speaking at a defense conference in Singapore this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this was already happening. He accused China and Russia of conspiring to derail a Ukrainian peace summit in Switzerland last week. Only a few Asian countries participate.
Rich Yuan Reporting from Tokyo.
