President Vladimir Putin announced on Friday that Russia will produce a new medium-range nuclear missile and then decide whether to deploy it within range of NATO countries in Europe and U.S. allies in Asia.
Putin’s threats were vague: He made no mention of a timetable for deploying the weapons and accused the United States of bringing similar missiles into training exercises in Europe and Asia, seemingly signaling he was open to negotiations.
But his timing is crucial as his announcement comes just as major elections are about to begin in Britain and France and days before the 75th anniversary NATO summit in Washington. Less than two weeks later, the U.S. and its allies in Asia were nervous about trying to increase the risk of conflict with the West.
The United States withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019 during the Trump administration after years of accusing Russia of cheating on the treaty. The treaty prohibits U.S. and Russian militaries from possessing land-based cruise or ballistic missiles with a range of about 300 to 3,400 miles.
It is one of a series of treaty withdrawals that mark the end of more than half a century of traditional nuclear arms control, with key agreements negotiated in Washington and Moscow. Only one such treaty remains: New START, which limits the intercontinental weapons each country can hold. It expires in February 2026.
Putin could have announced plans to strengthen the center arms at any time in the past five years, so his decision now is noteworthy. During this period, the Pentagon has begun to deploy some improved weapons in Asia, with the ultimate goal of countering China’s growing nuclear power. But the United States has yet to permanently redeploy any troops in Europe.
In short, in a televised speech during a video conference with national security officials on Friday, Putin mentioned some of Denmark’s recent military exercises and suggested that the United States may be preparing to leave weapons there.
“We need to respond to this and decide to take further steps in this regard,” Putin said. “It looks like we need to start producing these attack systems and then, based on the actual situation, decide where to deploy them to ensure that our Safety, if necessary.”
But his motivation may simply be a reaction to recent U.S. actions in Ukraine. When President Biden lifted a ban on Ukraine firing U.S.-supplied weapons into Russian territory — though he limited it to the area around Kharkiv where Russia was firing weapons — Putin made clear there would be a response.
During the Cold War, such missiles were an important part of the Soviet military. But in the early 1990s, the United States withdrew all medium-range land-launched nuclear cruise and ballistic missiles from Europe, and the Soviet Union also canceled its SS-20 missiles. These moves are seen as important steps towards easing tensions.
But a decade ago, Putin reversed Russia’s move and deployed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, the Russian region closest to Western European cities, a move the Obama administration accused of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. But President Barack Obama decided not to withdraw from the treaty on the grounds that it would relieve Putin of any obligations. President Donald J. Trump reversed that decision.
The Pentagon has used the withdrawal as an opportunity to plan the deployment in the Pacific of weapons previously banned by the treaty. But when military exercises are held, they almost always involve mock-ups, not real nuclear weapons.
The threat to produce more nuclear-capable missiles is also the latest example of Putin trying to gain influence in the war against Ukraine by leveraging the power and influence of his nuclear arsenal. At the outset of the invasion, he ordered weapons to be placed on higher alert—but apparently never did.
In October 2022, the Biden administration intercepted information indicating that Russian generals were planning to detonate battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine, possibly at a military base. The crisis was mitigated without the use of any nuclear weapons.
