Housing affordability will remain a top issue in the upcoming presidential election, with swing states determining the next president and the future of housing costs.
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Mortgage rates and sales prices have surged since the 2020 election, hitting new highs in battleground states, Redfin announced Tuesday.
Housing affordability is a top issue in the upcoming presidential election, with swing states set to determine the next president and the future of housing costs. Redfin’s swing states for 2024 include Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
“Voters in swing states are concerned about housing affordability as soaring home prices and mortgage rates, coupled with a shortage of homes for sale, have left some Americans feeling Homeownership is Impossible “While swing states have historically had lower housing costs than blue states — and most states still do — swing state markets have not been immune to the affordability crunch the country has faced over the past few years. . Unaffordability has left many voters frustrated with their economic and financial prospects.
Monthly housing payments in swing states nearly doubled, rising 92% to $2,161, according to a report from Redfin. Since 2020, the median home sales price has increased by approximately 40%, reaching an all-time high of $316,063 in 2024.
Redfin’s analysis of housing market data and incomes in blue, red and swing states collected data from 2016 to 2024. The data is annual data from 2016 to 2023, while the data for 2024 includes January to May.
Home prices also rose in red states (leaning Republican) and blue states (leaning Democratic). In red states, the median home payment increased 95% to a record $2,066. In blue states, payments increased 83% to $3,311.
Homeowners face a major dilemma as incomes aren’t growing at the same rate as home prices, in part due to the hangover of upgrading during the COVID-19 pandemic.
While demand for remote work and low mortgage rates increased in 2020 and 2021, home prices were also rising, especially in Sun Belt swing states like Georgia and Nevada. The major metropolitan areas in these states, Atlanta and Las Vegas, were among the cities with the fastest growth in residents during this period.
Generally speaking, homeowners should spend no more than 30% of their income on monthly housing costs to be considered affordable.
By that measure, only 35.1% of swing state homes for sale this year are affordable to households earning the U.S. median income of $79,155, down from 65.5% in 2020. Sources are affordable to the median income, down from 69% in 2020.
Homeowners in swing states looking to purchase larger properties are stuck as housing costs outpace equity growth, Redfin said. Black and Hispanic families are another group struggling to obtain housing in swing states.
For black households, those earning the median income in swing states will spend nearly half (48.2%) of their income on buying a home. By 2020, this family will spend 32.7% of their income on buying a home. Hispanic households will spend 38.3% of their income on moderately priced housing, an increase from 26.8% in 2020.
Notably, house prices also rose between the 2016 and 2020 elections. From 2016 to 2020, average home prices increased by 40% in swing states; by 27% in blue states, and by 28% in red states.
Ahead of the upcoming 2024 election, President Biden has released plans to lower housing costs, while Donald Trump has mentioned strategies for dealing with the market.
Email Richelle Hamill
