Vice President Kamala Harris has erased Trump’s lead nationally and in battleground states, according to the latest CBS News poll.
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Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over Trump nationally, with battleground states also tied. There was a huge shift in enthusiasm, with the proportion saying they would definitely vote rising from 58% to 74%. pic.twitter.com/FNDoGciI1z
—Sarah Rhys-Jones (@PoliticusSarah) August 4, 2024
CBS News reports:
The share of Democrats who say they will “definitely vote” has risen to its highest point this year. This narrows the partisan “turnout gap” we’ve seen throughout the campaign.
Far more black voters say they will vote today than in July when Biden won the nomination.
More generally, all this suggests that elections are likely to hinge on turnout, especially among marginal turnout voters—those who don’t always show up to vote.
For example, among those who typically describe themselves as voting “sometimes” or “rarely” — but say they definitely vote now — Harris currently wins.
How Kamala Harris could change the 2024 election
What’s changed is that Kamala Harris has excited and engaged voters who don’t feel that way about a Trump/Biden rematch. After eight years of older candidates as presidential candidates, there appears to be pent-up demand among voters for fresh faces and voices.
Voters are more excited about Harris, and what should be encouraging for Democrats is that many voters are still not paying attention. Typically, casual voters don’t start paying attention to the election until after Labor Day.
The message from this poll is that Kamala Harris has momentum. This election is different than it was two weeks ago. Donald Trump has lost any edge he once had. Democrats are excited. The swing states have shifted, and if the momentum continues, Kamala Harris will become the next President of the United States.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of Society of Professional Journalists and American Political Science Association
