Sacramento officials were elated this week when the biennial count showed a massive 29% drop in observed local homelessness, the largest decline city and county leaders have seen in more than a decade.
Although the number of homeless people in the area is still higher than five years ago, the number of homeless people in the county dropped sharply from 9,278 people in 2022 to 6,615 people. The number of people living in outdoor tents and temporary shelters in the area also dropped by 41%, from 6,664 to 3,944.
Officials applauded the progress and expressed optimism in social media posts, press releases and press conferences.
“There are still too many homeless people for us to declare victory, but maybe the homeless problem isn’t that intractable after all,” said Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg. “The number of homeless people has increased significantly. The 41% reduction is proof that the stabilizing approach we established seven years ago to address this state and national crisis is working.”
“These results are truly outstanding and undeniably reflective of the city of Sacramento and County ‘all in’ approach to dealing with this crisis.
But the decline is so steep that one of the region’s largest nonprofit homeless service providers is questioning the accuracy of the statistics.
“These are incredible numbers and further highlight the issues of trust our guests have expressed in local government over our many years of service,” Loaves and Fishes said in a written statement. “All campus programs reported , we receive more guests every day than last year.”
The nonprofit said the number of homeless people seeking services increased by 6.4% from 2022 to 2023, including a 21% increase in meals provided.
Shannon Dominguez-Stevens, director of Loaves and Fishes’ Maryhouse, a day shelter for women and children, expects that number to increase even further this year.
“What’s interesting is that every day we see more and more people coming to us in crisis [mode], just lost their housing and can’t find shelter beds,” she said. “It’s surprising, and frankly it’s unbelievable that the number of communities has dropped so much. It doesn’t make sense.
Dominguez-Stevens said she was skeptical of Simtech Solutions Inc., the new company hired by Sacramento Steps Forward to help with the count and analyze the data. Previous homeless counts were conducted with assistance from Sacramento State University.
New companies use different methods to collect and analyze data, she said.
Additionally, she said, city and county leaders have increased homeless encampment cleanups over the past two years, causing homeless people to distrust government officials and go deeper into hiding.
Dominguez-Stevens is also concerned that the 2024 point-in-time data will have a negative impact on government funding for housing and support services.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development requires a homeless count every two years and is used to help determine how to allocate funding for federal services. The data also helps government entities like Sacramento County quantify and classify their homeless population to determine what services and resources are needed in specific areas.
Dominquez-Stevens said expressing concern about the results was not meant to create tension between the nonprofit and the county.
“But we are an organization dedicated to amplifying the voices of homeless people in our community,” Dominquez-Stevens said. “The only way to do that is to continue to advocate, even if our advocacy causes some people to feel unhappy.”
County officials said they expect there will be a fair amount of reasonable doubt when the results are announced.
“We double-checked, triple-checked and reviewed our approach,” Bates said. “We go back to our national advisors and we’re taking various approaches to see if there’s anything that warrants our attention from a methodological perspective, which leads us to look at other data in the system, so it’s those are the factors that make us It was concluded that these numbers hold up.
Trent Simmons, director of data analytics for Sacramento Steps Forward, said Simtech Solutions was chosen because it conducts more than 300 point-in-time counts across the country. It uses a census tract method, compared to four-mile areas used in previous counts.
“I don’t think there’s anything wrong with pointing in one direction rather than another,” he said.
The company also provides a mobile app for volunteers to enter data and collect and analyze it. Simmons said there have been no reports of any major outages and the company’s support staff are on standby to resolve any issues.
City and county officials said the decline in homelessness reflects the partnership they built in 2022 after the homeless population surged 67% between 2019 and 2022, surpassing San Francisco.
Officials said the partnership allows both agencies to pool resources to increase the number of outreach teams, shelter bed capacity and create a coordinated access system to ensure people receive the homeless services they need.
Additionally, officials said rents in the area have dropped 3% since 2022 and apartment vacancies have increased 58%.
Steinberg said doubts about this year’s homelessness results have not dampened the celebration surrounding the results.
“When the numbers went up in 2022, those of us in the trenches accepted that reality,” he said. “Now we have some more hopeful news, and by the way, I measured this and it’s not a declaration of victory, but it does represent amazing progress.”
