Saturday’s election results showed that with almost all votes counted, the ANC party received only about 40% of the vote, failing to win an absolute majority for the first time since Africa’s last general election, losing control of South Africa. political constraints.
With South Africa facing one of the world’s highest unemployment rates, electricity and water shortages and rampant crime, the ruling party still defeated its rivals but was unable to maintain the nearly 58% of the vote it won in the last election in 2019.
The stunning nosedive of Africa’s oldest liberation movement has set one of the continent’s most stable countries and its largest economy on an unstable and unknown path.
The party, which won international acclaim on the shoulders of Nelson Mandela, will now have two weeks to form a government with one or more rival parties that deride the party as corrupt and vow never to ally with it.
“I was really shocked,” said Maropene Ramokgopa, one of the top officials of the African National Congress (ANC). “It opened our eyes to, ‘Look, we are in a The place is missing something.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who leads the African National Congress, faces serious threats to his re-election ambitions. He will be forced to use the negotiating skills that helped him end apartheid and unite his highly factional party, which is likely to be divided over which side to align with.
Critics are expected to blame Mr Ramaphosa for the defeat and may try to replace him with his deputy Paul Mashtile. The party’s biggest fall between the last election and the next was 4.7% in 2019.
“I didn’t expect Ramaphosa to make things worse than he found them in five years,” said Khulu Mbatha, an ANC veteran who has criticized the party for not being active enough. Address corruption.
Before the 400-member National Assembly convenes and elects a president, political parties must finalize their coalition arrangements. There are 52 political parties in the national election, and the number of seats each party receives in parliament is determined by the percentage of votes it wins. Without an absolute majority, the ANC can no longer hand-pick the country’s leaders.
“South Africa is going to go through teething problems going into this era,” said Pranesh Desai, a data analyst at the nonpartisan group Good Governance in Africa. “Some of it may be significant, but voters decided they want this.”
Political analysts say that because of the huge gap to reach 50%, the ANC cannot just woo smaller parties to maintain its dominance in government. Instead, it must seek help from some of the larger parties it went toe-to-toe with during the campaign.
A big question is whether the ANC will embrace or shun the new party led by Jacob Zuma, Mr Ramaphosa’s arch-nemesis, former president and ANC leader.
Mr Zuma, who was forced to resign in 2018 amid a corruption scandal, felt betrayed by the party and his former deputy Mr Ramaphosa and helped form a new party, umkhonto weSizwe, or MK, which is the ANC’s Party name. Mr Zuma was barred from running for parliament, but MK performed well at the ballot box, grabbing key votes from the ANC and other parties, analysts said.
“Of course, this actually surprised the ANC,” Nomvula Mokonyane, one of the ANC’s senior officials, said of MK’s performance. “This exceeded our expectations.”
Officials in Mr Zuma’s party have said they are willing to work with any party, meaning a reunion between Mr Zuma and his former friend, now foe, is not out of the question – although it might embarrass the ANC
Another potential ally for the ANC is the Democratic Alliance, which received the second largest vote share. Some ANC members have accused the DA of pursuing policies that would actually return the country to apartheid. Others see the partnership as a natural fit, as the DA’s market-based economic views align well with Mr Ramaphosa’s.
But for Ramaphosa, joining the grand coalition could come with political risks, as the Democratic Alliance has been staunchly opposed to race-based policies aimed at increasing black jobs and wealth. The Democratic Alliance has also pushed the issue of pandering to right-wing whites.
Instead, the ANC could turn to the Economic Freedom Fighters party, which was founded a decade ago by Julius Malema, one of the youth leaders expelled from the ANC. Analysts say the partnership could scare big business and international investors as the economic freedom fighters insist on nationalizing mines and other businesses and seizing land from white owners to redistribute it to black South Africans.
But such an alliance is attractive to some ANC members because Malema is one of their own and a large part of the party is ideologically aligned with the Economic Freedom Fighters’ philosophy of wealth redistribution be consistent.
There are fears that the country is heading towards political chaos, which will divert attention from many issues. Coalition governments at the local level have proven unstable, with leaders changing at will and internal strife so intense that lawmakers can do nothing for their constituents.
The country faces serious economic and social challenges, and many South Africans question whether they have truly escaped apartheid. For many, this election represents an opportunity for a reset, much like the transition to democracy a generation ago.
During the election, the slogan “2024 is our 1994” was circulated on social media and campaign posters, especially among young South Africans.
The landmark election ended the dominance of a party that spearheaded the fight against colonialism and reshaped Africa in the second half of the 20th century. The party’s ban by the racist apartheid government sent many of its leaders into exile around the world. Stories of torture and suffering by these party members helped make many of them heroes in the eyes of South Africa and the world – a reputation that made many voters who grew up under apartheid eternally loyal to the party.
But that loyalty waned as many South Africans failed to see their material conditions improve significantly under decades of ANC leadership, while many of the party’s leaders amassed vast fortunes. Young South Africans who did not live under white rule have become a growing part of the electorate and are often more interested in the party’s aura than its performance in government.
Some of the country’s southern African neighbors are governed by former liberation movements that are close allies of the African National Congress and are seeing declining electoral support. Analysts say the results of South Africa’s elections could herald the downfall of other liberation parties.
Mavuso Msimang, a senior ANC member, said that when he drove past long lines outside polling stations on election day, he feared the party would be punished for failing to provide basic services such as electricity.
“I said to myself, ‘You know, these people are not lining up to vote to thank the ANC for taking down the lights,'” he said. “It’s clear these people are not going to vote for us.”
