South Africans were on edge Thursday as votes were tight in a national election, with early results pointing to a poor outcome for the African National Conference party, which has ruled the country for three decades.
While no official results are expected before the weekend, forecasts suggest the party known as the African National Congress may win less than 50% of the vote, down from 57.5% at the last election five years ago.
This means that for the first time the ANC will need to form a coalition with one or more rival parties to stay in power. In South Africa’s parliamentary system, President Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the African National Congress party, needs the support of opposition members to be re-elected.
A weakened ANC would dramatically change South Africa’s politics and its policies, moving the country from a one-party-dominated government to one made up of fragile coalitions. This strategy worked well for the ANC in smaller cities, but was fraught with trouble in larger cities such as Johannesburg and led to political infighting.
About half of the electorate has been counted, and preliminary results show the ANC with 43% of the vote, trailing in key provinces it won comfortably in the last election.
These early results for the ANC came mainly from rural areas that remained loyal to the party. In Gauteng, South Africa’s most populous province, only 12% of constituencies had confirmed results as of Thursday.
There are 51 opposition parties vying for voters. The largest of these was the Democratic Alliance, led by John Steenhuisen, a white politician in a majority-black country. Ahead of the election, the Democratic Alliance formed an alliance with smaller opposition parties.
Without the support of the Democratic Alliance, the ANC may have to form a coalition with the second-largest opposition party, the Economic Freedom Fighters, a left-wing party with strong support among young voters. The Economic Freedom Fighters were formed in 2013 after its leader, Julius Malema, was expelled from the ANC Youth League.
The new party “umkhonto weSizwe” (MK), led by former president Jacob Zuma, has shown early strength in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal. broke away from the African National Congress. Mr Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, recently said the PPP would not work with Mr Ramaphosa.
Some analysts have not ruled out that the ANC could win more than 50% of the vote. The party could also win back support in provinces such as the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, giving it more power in negotiations with the opposition.
The election was held 30 years after the end of apartheid, at a time when South Africa’s economy was in a slump, youth unemployment was high and the national mood was low.
Lines snaked around polling stations on Election Day Wednesday. The election commission acknowledged that new voting rules and extra ballot filling were causing delays. However, by 9pm, as polls were about to close, thousands of South Africans were still queuing, braving the cold autumn wind, waiting for their chance to vote. The Electoral Commission said early data showed voter turnout was higher than at the last national election held in 2019.
“We’ve had enough,” said Isabel Olatunji, pushing her young son in a pram as she waited at a polling station in Johannesburg’s northern suburbs. Ms Olatunji, 32, said she was “60 per cent optimistic” that the election would bring about change, or at least, she said, “get things moving”.
