In Europe, which has long been an important source of support for Israel, the political center of gravity is shifting away from the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Spain, Ireland and Norway recognized Palestinian statehood on Wednesday despite strong opposition from Israel and the United States. This week, most European governments offered unequivocal support to the International Criminal Court after it requested arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister, defense minister and Hamas leaders.
Israel still has staunch allies within the EU, notably Hungary and the Czech Republic, while key countries such as Germany have shown no inclination to change their stance despite growing dissatisfaction with Israel’s behavior. Widening rifts within Europe mean the consensus-led EU won’t change its stance anytime soon.
But European countries face growing international and domestic pressure to take a firmer stance on Israel’s handling of the Palestinian territories, particularly the devastating war in Gaza.
Sweden has been the only EU member state to recognize Palestinian statehood for a decade. Europe has long supported the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state – a “two-state solution” that the Israeli government staunchly opposes – and has expressed dismay at Israel’s handling of Gaza and the occupied West Bank, but most countries are unwilling to go that route. further.
On the contrary, the EU was moving closer to Israel before the war, including through financially and politically important partnerships in trade and science.
War and the way it evolves is changing that. European sympathy for continued support for Israel after the October 7 attacks is waning as the war continues, the humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorates, and Israel looks less like a victim and more like an aggressor in the eyes of many.
EU members Ireland and Spain and Norway, which has close ties to the bloc, took the next step on Wednesday by recognizing Palestinian statehood – a harsh rebuke of Israel, although it had little practical effect and was not a surprise. The three European countries have been outspoken critics of Israel and support the Palestinian cause, even as they condemned Hamas and its brutal attack on Israel on October 7.
If more neighbors follow their lead, the EU could become a major counterweight to the US position that Palestinian statehood can only be achieved through a negotiated settlement with Israel. This will deepen the rift between Europe and Israel.
EU member states have expressed growing alarm and concern over Israel’s deadly and destructive actions against Hamas in Gaza. Particular attention is now being paid to Belgium, another staunchly pro-Palestinian EU country, which has stepped up its criticism of Israel’s handling of the war.
The EU as a whole has maintained trade and other agreements with Israel, despite growing calls to cut off or significantly limit them.
Since October 7, most of the 27 EU countries have held basically similar positions on the war between Israel and Hamas and have experienced similar shifts.
They were first disgusted by Hamas-led attacks that killed some 1,200 people and captured 240 hostages, supported Israel’s right to self-defense, and continued to want a two-state solution. They called on Israel to exercise restraint in its bombing, blockade and invasion of Gaza. Israel has since come under increasingly sharp criticism for its actions, which have so far killed some 35,000 people (combatants and civilians), forced most Gazans to flee their homes, caused food and medicine shortages and devastated the population. Flattened many buildings in the territory.
Support for Israel by countries such as Hungary and the Czech Republic could play a decisive role in determining what the EU can, and especially cannot do, in the Middle East. Austria has also maintained close ties with Israel, which other countries have criticized.
Foreign policy is a national prerogative that EU member states compete to defend, and they cede many other powers to the EU. The organization’s positions on international affairs can only be reached by consensus, so it is unlikely to take a clear position on Israel and Palestine in the short term.
When ICC prosecutors on Monday requested arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yove Galante, most European countries, as well as the EU itself, took no public stance on the move but said they Respect Israel’s decision.
But Czech Prime Minister Peter Fiala said on social media that seeking to arrest “representatives of democratically elected governments and leaders of Islamic terrorist organizations is shocking and completely unacceptable.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called it “ridiculous and shameful”.
But Belgian Foreign Minister Hajja Rahbib said, “Whoever the perpetrator is, crimes committed in Gaza must be prosecuted at the highest level.”
France’s foreign ministry, the EU’s second-largest country, said “France supports the International Criminal Court and its independence and supports the fight against impunity in all circumstances.”
France’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that recognizing a Palestinian state was “not a taboo” for France but that the right time had not yet come, France’s foreign minister said on Wednesday, after several European countries formally took the step. “This decision must be useful,” Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said in a statement.
Although France has so far taken no independent action, last month France voted in support of a UN Security Council resolution recognizing Palestine as a full member of the United Nations. Britain, which remains influential despite having left the EU, abstained from that vote.
The United States, France and the United Kingdom are all permanent members of the Security Council and have the right to veto any action by the Security Council. Only the United States has used such force, signaling a growing rift with Europe.
The evolution of Germany’s position will play an important role in the direction of EU-Israel relations. Germany, the EU’s largest member state, has long expressed a unique commitment to Israel due to its Nazi past and the Holocaust.
Immediately after October 7, Berlin began siding with the pro-Israel side of the EU camp, but now more openly criticized the way Israel waged the war and called for an immediate ceasefire, both against Israel and Israel.
When asked at a press conference in Berlin about the recognition of the Palestinian issue by Spain, Ireland and Norway, German Foreign Ministry spokesperson Catherine Dessauer did not indicate any change in Germany’s position.
“An independent Palestinian state remains a firm goal of German foreign policy,” she said. She added that it was an urgent matter but had to happen after the “dialogue process” had concluded.
Aurelien Breeden reporting from Paris, and Christopher Schutz From Berlin.
