This is a carefully staged drama of a great power—or, more accurately, a drama of a middle power encountering a great power.
In a short clip released by 10 Downing Street on Saturday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hunches over a speaker phone as a White House operator says: “You are now connected to Air Force One .
“Sir. Prime Minister, congratulations,” said President Biden, who was flying to Wisconsin for a campaign rally. “What a victory!”
The two leaders spoke passionately about the importance of the “special relationship” between the UK and the US, their shared commitment to defending Ukraine and their upcoming meeting: Mr Starmer will travel to Washington on Tuesday, where Mr Biden is hosting A NATO summit meeting.
Not since Barack Obama’s first term have the White House and Downing Street both been in the hands of a center-left party. It could herald a harmonious new era in transatlantic relations after years of tensions over Brexit, Northern Ireland and dashed hopes of a UK trade deal.
This may also be a brief era. The U.S. election in four months could restore the presidency to Donald J. Trump, who has a strained relationship with Prime Minister Theresa May, Britain’s center-right leader , not to mention center-left leaders.
Diplomats and analysts say navigating Britain’s relationship with one of its closest allies will be a delicate challenge for Starmer at a time of deep uncertainty. He faces a Democratic president who is on the defensive, even within his own party, and a Republican successor who is likely to spar with him on core issues from Ukraine to climate change.
A landslide victory for Labor would normally be good news for Biden. British voters have a habit of heralding political change in the United States, whether Margaret Thatcher was elected a year before Ronald Reagan or five months before Trump. The 2016 Brexit referendum.
But Starmer’s victory, while shocking, came with some caveats, not least the strong showing of the insurgent, anti-immigration Reform Party, led by Trump’s outspoken ally Nigel Farage. Biden has his own problems, and they have more to do with actuarial tables than political cycles.
“For this administration, it’s all going to be about hedging who is going to be the Democratic nominee, hedging about whether Donald Trump is elected, hedging about U.S. policy no matter who is elected,” he said. (Leslie Vinjamuri), Director of the United States and Americas Program at Chatham House, a British research institution.
She said Starmer would even have to weigh issues such as how to react to the outcome of the U.S. election, especially if the result is too close to go against Trump. When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Biden on his 2020 victory – an outcome that Trump continues to dispute without evidence – Trump reacted angrily and criticized Netanyahu Nyahu holds a grudge.
Given the circumstances, diplomats prefer to focus on what Mr Starmer can accomplish with Mr Biden over the next six and a half months. The two men agree on issues such as military support for Ukraine, aggressive government action to curb climate change and closer ties between the UK and the EU.
That last item may indeed change the tone, analysts say, given that transatlantic tensions over Brexit date back to before the Brexit referendum. Obama has warned Britons they will be “at the back of the queue” for a trade deal if they vote to leave the EU.
“Political relations have been tense since the UK decided to leave the EU, not least because of the risks Brexit poses to the smooth implementation of the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland,” said David Manning, Britain’s last ambassador to Washington. express. The Good Friday Agreement was a 1998 agreement that ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland.
“This is an opportunity for a new beginning,” he said.
Mr Starmer will be accompanied to Washington by his foreign secretary, David Lammy. He and his boss don’t have high hopes for a trade deal, given the Biden administration’s lack of interest in such deals.
But Mr Starmer can defuse lingering tensions in Northern Ireland, which is locked in often hostile negotiations with Brussels over the terms of Brexit.
The question angered Mr. Biden, who proudly celebrates his Irish roots. He regularly warned the former British government against taking actions that would jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement.
Starmer, who made his first visit to Belfast since becoming prime minister on Monday, described Labour’s victory as a repositioning of Northern Ireland and promised a relationship of “respect and cooperation”.
Mary Lou McDonald, leader of Ireland’s nationalist party Sinn Féin, said the difference between dealing with Labor and Conservative governments was like “day and dark”.
Tensions in Northern Ireland have eased even under Starmer’s predecessor, Rishi Sunak. Sunak reached an agreement with the EU on North Korea trade arrangements last year.
Analysts say greater sources of tension may emerge over issues such as commercial relations with China, where the Biden administration has urged Britain and other allies to take a more combative approach.
“Britain needs economic growth,” Ms Venjamouri said. “Choosing between the US and China is not a good position for the UK to be in.”
Analysts say Trump would not care about Northern Ireland if re-elected, but he would be put off by Starmer’s efforts to bring Europe closer. As far as Trump’s relationship with any prime minister, he has a close relationship with Boris Johnson, who has gleefully clashed with the European Union and bears a rough resemblance to the president’s own populist style.
This is not to say that leaders of opposing parties in Britain and the United States cannot work together. After all, Obama issued the Brexit warning at the behest of Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron. Mr. Blair was known to support George W. Bush’s war in Iraq, and Bush even relied on him to consult with other leaders on his behalf.
“Bush did find it useful to take the temperature with Blair,” Mr Manning said. “It’s hard to imagine Trump wanting this kind of relationship, but much depends on his approach to America’s traditional transatlantic partners.”
