Russia and Ukraine failed to agree on a range of key issues when they held peace talks in the spring of 2022. The crux of any negotiations in the largest land war in generations.
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin had viewed negotiations in 2022 as the basis for any future deal, but on Friday shifted to a tougher stance, demanding that Ukraine give up territory not even under Russian control. Ukrainian and Western officials have long suspected that Russia would be unwilling to accept any compromise short of a total conquest of Ukraine.
1. Neutrality of Ukraine:
Will it join NATO?
Ukraine’s efforts to join the Western military alliance were central to Putin’s rationale for invading the country in February 2022.
Russia’s position
Russia demands Ukraine Never join NATO or other alliances; Own a foreign military base or weapons; or conduct military exercises Cooperate with other countries without their consent. During the negotiations in 2022, Russia promised not to hinder Ukraine’s possible accession to the EU.
Ukraine’s position
Ukraine offers to become “Permanently Neutral Country” and “Termination of international treaties and agreements incompatible with permanent neutrality. But over the next two years, as the war in Russia raged on, Ukrainian leaders became more outspoken in their pursuit of joining the Western military alliance.
2. Security:
What would happen if Ukraine was attacked again?
Some experts say commitments by other countries to protect Ukraine if Russia invades again must be at the heart of any lasting peace.
Ukraine’s position
Ukraine proposed a security mechanism that would be triggered “if Ukraine suffers an armed attack.” The “guarantoring countries” that have signed the treaty will hold “urgent and immediate consultations” for no more than three days. Then they will take “Acting alone or jointly “Protect Ukraine if necessary, including establishing no fly zoneproviding weapons and Use military force.
Russia’s position
Russia agrees with most of Ukraine’s security proposals, with some key exceptions. It has balked at the idea of other countries establishing no-fly zones or providing weapons to Ukraine. On top of that, Russia tried to insert a clause, All guarantors – including Russia itself – are required to come to an agreement on military intervention. The idea, perhaps the thorniest sticking point in the draft, is that if Russia invades Ukraine again it could veto any international response, rendering the security guarantees meaningless.
Another question: Which countries are really willing to guarantee Ukraine’s security? The United States, Britain, France, China and Russia are all listed as guarantors of the draft treaty. Russia also wants to include Belarusalthough Ukraine wants to join Türkiye; It is unclear whether countries agree. If Ukraine eventually joins NATO, the Western alliance will have to deal with similarly thorny issues of how to respond if Ukraine is attacked again.
3. Territory:
How much territory in Ukraine remains under Russian occupation?
For Ukraine, a peace deal would likely come at the cost of accepting Russian control of parts of its territory.
Ukraine’s position
During negotiations in 2022, Ukraine refused to recognize Russian control of any region of the country, including Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. “Solving Crimea-related Issues” Through 10 or 15 years of diplomacy and commitment Avoid doing this through “military means”.
Ukraine appeared ready to accept that parts of the country’s east remained under Russian occupation, with the exact outlines set to be hammered out in a meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Putin that never took place.
Since then, Zelensky’s stance has become tougher. He said Ukraine was working to liberate all internationally recognized territories, including Crimea, which is under Russian control.
Russia’s position
Russia’s position has also changed. As soon as the 2022 negotiations begin, Russia demands that Ukraine Abandon the entire eastern Donbass area and recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea. By April, Russia had accepted the model in Crimea and some other parts of Ukraine Still under Russian occupation Ukraine does not recognize its legitimacy.
Now, however, Russia’s territorial claims appear even more extreme. In September 2022, Putin declared that four regions of Ukraine, with the exception of Crimea, were part of Russia, although Ukraine still controls most of the territory. On Friday, Putin went further than in the past, declaring that any ceasefire was conditional on Ukraine ceding all four regions to Russia, which does not fully control them.
4. How does a ceasefire work?
The logistics of making a truce work may be one of the most difficult challenges in any negotiation.
Russia’s position
An annex to the April 2022 draft added by Russian negotiators details how Moscow views the implementation of the ceasefire agreement. They said it would begin when the treaty becomes “provisionally applicable” – the day it is signed by Ukraine and most of the guarantor countries, including Russia. Neither side will “take actions that could lead to the expansion of the territory under its control or the resumption of hostilities”.
Under the terms proposed by Russia, Moscow’s troops will have greater flexibility when withdrawing from the battlefield. although Ukraine will be required to withdraw its troops immediately Russia’s withdrawal will be Separate “negotiations.”
International organizations may also be involved. Russia proposed a UN-monitored ceasefire, with the Red Cross involved in an exchange of prisoners of war, detained civilians and the remains of the dead.
Ukraine’s position
The April 2022 draft shows Ukraine rejecting the Russian proposal, but does not show Ukraine’s counteroffer. Instead, Ukrainian officials noted that Russia could stop the fighting at any time. A note inserted by Ukrainian officials in the March 2022 draft treaty said: “The Russian side has ignored Ukraine’s repeated ceasefire requests.”
5. Ukrainian national identity
When Putin announced the invasion on February 24, 2022, he described the “denazification” of Ukraine as one of his goals. The term is widely interpreted as referring to the Kremlin’s goal of overthrowing Zelensky’s government and replacing it with a puppet regime.
Russia’s position
But Russia’s definition of “denazification” quickly changed after its initial invasion failed. Negotiator wanted in Moscow Russian to be declared official language Laws promoting Ukrainian language and identity will be repealed. They inserted two annexes into the draft treaty listing the provisions of the Code and the Constitution of Ukraine that they wished to repeal, calling some of them “The Nazification and Heroization of Nazism”.
Ukraine’s position
Ukraine refuses to include any Russian demands in a deal to end the war, arguing they “It has nothing to do with the subject of the treaty.”
6. Restrictions on Ukrainian Armed Forces
When he announced the invasion, Putin also called for the “demilitarization” of Ukraine, as in the ill-defined term “denazification.”
Russia’s position
Russia seeks to limit the size of Ukraine’s military, including its total strength (Up to 100,000 people), and the number of different types of weapons it possesses – 147 mortars and 10 combat helicopters, For example. it also hopes Ukrainian missile range 25 miles only.
Ukraine’s position
In negotiations for 2022, Ukraine is willing to accept a much higher cap on the size of its military. it seeks a maximum 250,000 troops, 1,080 mortars and 60 combat helicopters. it puts limits The missile has a range of 174 miles. But that was before Ukraine started getting massive amounts of weapons, equipment and training from the West. Ukrainian officials note that Ukraine’s military, now one of the most powerful in Europe, is unlikely to accept restrictions on the country’s ability to defend itself.
Original file
To omit identifying marks, these documents have been reprinted to resemble the original documents. Typographical errors in the original document have been preserved.
March 17, 2022, Draft Treaty An early draft of the Ukraine-Russia treaty. The document was an English translation provided by Ukraine to Western governments at the time. [English]
March 29, 2022, Istanbul Gazette Ukrainian negotiators summarized the proposed agreement discussed during face-to-face talks in Istanbul. [English translation] [Russian original]
April 15, 2022, draft treaty Later draft of the Ukrainian-Russian treaty. The document’s title indicates this is the version sitting on President Vladimir Putin’s desk. The maps mentioned in Annex 6 are not included. [English translation] [Russian original]
