The far-right National Rally (RN) has scored another victory and is now well on its way to turning French politics upside down.
There will be a lot of talk in the coming days about centrist and left-wing candidates being sidelined in the runoff in order to concentrate the anti-RN vote — and plenty of lamentation about the disappearance of old voters republican front (Other parties had agreed at the time to exclude the far right).
But to overturn the only conclusion that can be drawn from the first round of voting, which is that RN was undisputedly dominant political force In France.
Still, what remains to be decided next week is of considerable importance.
This is the difference between a far-right government that enjoys liberal powers because it has an absolute majority in the National Assembly and one that is essentially powerless because of a divided National Assembly.
Currently, the RN seat forecast is 260 to 310.
In an effort to limit the damage to his cause, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist and left-wing New Popular Front alliance will call on its supporters to vote tactically in the second round of voting on July 7. Even if their own candidate is eliminated, voters are urged to choose someone in their district who is running against an RN.
But the problem with this partisan order is that fewer and fewer people listen to them.
The disappearance of the old stigma of voting Republican has been a long process, but it can now be safely declared complete.
Another difficulty facing opponents of registered nurses is the high number of so-called triangular votes in the second round, which means that next Sunday not two but three candidates will face off in the district. Typically, one each in the middle, far right, and far left.
The reason for the large number of triangles is high turnoutwhich itself is a high-risk outcome.
It is precisely because lightning activity As a result, the small parties were unable to work together and the voting results were concentrated in the three major camps.
Obviously, if there are three parties competing in a district, the anti-RN vote will be harder to coalesce. In many places, centrist or left-wing candidates will take sides—but not all.
Overall, the country now seems imbued with a sense of the inevitability of a far-right victory. What was once considered an unthinkable event has now become a reality.
This has left many people frustrated and angry, especially in big cities like Paris, and has cast an air of gloom.
Elsewhere—in the middle of nowhere—people might feel differently.
