Go against the trend
Britain has a campaign today that mirrors other elections in Europe and the Americas: a frustrated electorate eager to reject the status quo, a badly discredited government and a touch of populism – in this case, represented by the rebels Nigel ·Farage’s candidacy.
But Britain is likely to come out on top in this election. While voters in other countries are moving to the right, British voters are expected to oust the Conservative-led government after 14 years in favor of the centre-left Labor Party. In today’s newsletter, I will explain why the UK is zigzagging while other countries are zigzagging.
Tory riots
The Conservative Party, or Tories, have led a turbulent era that began in 2010 under David Cameron. The pandemic and the revolving door of prime ministers. For many, this is a circus that now needs to leave town.
Boris Johnson was ousted from office following a series of scandals. (Among other things, he threw parties during the coronavirus lockdown.) Liz Truss has less than 50 days in office after financial markets vehemently opposed her tax cut proposals. The current chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has stabilized the situation but failed to provide restless voters with enough reason to keep his party in power.
Adding to the ongoing drama, Labor politicians claim the Tories have ruined Britain. They say the cuts are starving the country’s respected NHS, leading to overcrowded emergency rooms and months-long waits for elective surgeries.
Other experts pointed out that Britain’s departure from the European Union would slow down trade and hinder economic growth. While its post-pandemic rebound matched that of its European neighbors, its economy has since stalled and public debt has surged. (These charts, drawn by my colleagues Josh Holder and Ademola Bello, show how Britain has changed since the Conservatives came to power in 2010.)
The Conservatives are even in trouble on their own priority: a surge in immigration since Brexit. This is partly due to refugees from Ukraine and Hong Kong. But the influx has also been fueled by massive immigration from South Asia and Africa, many of whom come to study at universities or to be recruited as nurses or doctors in the understaffed National Health Service. In addition, thousands of asylum seekers are trying to cross the border.
Conservative leaders, who see Brexit as a tool to reduce immigration, say they will reduce arrivals. Sunak vowed to “stop the boats”. He spent months ensuring parliament passed a legally challenged policy that would see some asylum seekers take one-way flights to Rwanda. But many voters no longer believe the Conservatives have credibility on the issue.
Labour’s position
Labor vows to curb immigration by better policing Britain’s borders. (This would mothball flights to Rwanda, calling it costly and inefficient.) Beyond that, however, the party’s priorities don’t appear to be that different from those of the government, and that’s no accident.
Labor has been careful not to draw a clear line between itself and the Conservatives on a range of issues. It does not propose significant tax increases. It has vowed not to significantly increase spending until Britain’s runaway public deficit is reduced. It scaled back ambitious plans to curb climate change. It would maintain British military support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Labour’s rejection of the Tories has less to do with the substance of their policies than with their poor governance. It hopes to win over many voters tired of Tory rule without scaring those distrustful of the tax and spend left, especially former leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Polls show the plan is working. Labor has held a double-digit lead over the Conservatives in opinion polls for more than 18 months. Current Labor leader Keir Starmer has positioned himself as a logical alternative to Sunak – a change agent but by no means a left-wing revolutionary.
A real concept competition
To the extent that there is an ideological battle in this election, the battle is on the right. Farage is a populist firebrand who campaigned on behalf of the Brexit party and leads an anti-immigration party, Reform Britain, which is wresting votes from the Conservatives.
Under the electoral rules of British politics, the Reform Party is unlikely to win many seats in Parliament. But it could split the right-wing vote, deepen the Tories’ defeat against Labour, and possibly even lead to a split in the Conservative Party.
Farage is an ally of Donald Trump, and his populist challenge echoes not only Trump’s movement in the United States but also the advances of far-right parties in France and Germany.
The UK is not unique in this respect at least.
learn more
Even if you don’t know the entirety of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, you probably recognize its ending, “Ode to Joy.” The song was written 200 years ago and uses techniques common in Taylor Swift hits, but it’s more than just a beautiful song.
Lived: Robert Towne, who won an Oscar for writing Roman Polanski’s “Chinatown,” has died at the age of 89.
conversation starter
art and ideas
How competitive diners eat dozens of hot dogs
Today, competitive eating giants will compete in Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest, an American Independence Day tradition
Most of these potential champions are not professionals but passionate amateurs. Some people burst their stomachs from ingesting large amounts of food or liquids. They might use the Solomonic method—think King Solomon—which requires the dog to be split in half before eating it. It might just come down to willpower: The body doesn’t want to eat 72 hot dogs, but victory beckons.
suggestion
That’s it for today. See you tomorrow. —Dan
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