A new Cato Institute/YouGov survey reveals some interesting insights into public attitudes toward international trade. The study found that most Americans appear to like international trade, but there are also significant internal contradictions in their views, which are often influenced by ignorance. Such results are not surprising given widespread public ignorance about a variety of other public policy issues. But they’re still worth noting.
Cato’s survey shows that in some quarters, the public remains very supportive of free trade, despite recent protectionist trends from both major political parties. About 53% of people have a positive view of “free trade”, while only 11% have an opposing view. A whopping 63% of respondents said they were in favor of “The United States increases trade with other countries,” while only 10% opposed it.
On the other hand, 62% agreed with “aImposing tariffs on blue jeans sold in the United States and manufactured in other countries to promote production and employment in the U.S. blue jeans industry. Other countries lower trade restrictions on U.S. products because doing so would harm U.S. businesses and jobs,” with 15% opposed to cutting tariffs under any circumstances. Only 23% support unilateral tariff cuts (a majority of economics home position).
It seems that most people support “free trade” in principle, but their stance shifts when it comes to jobs. But this latter view disappears once respondents understand that tariffs raise prices. Thus, the survey found that if tariffs on blue jeans made a pair of blue jeans $10 more expensive than their original price, 66% would object (58% would accept a modest increase of $5).
Given that almost all effective tariffs are likely to result in significant price increases (otherwise, there would be no point in imposing the tariffs since it’s the only way they can actually help domestic producers by buying less foreign products), one would think this would be somewhat price sensitive would result in a majority opposing tariffs and supporting unilateral free trade. It’s worth noting, however, that another question in the survey found that only 38% knew that free trade agreements lowered “the prices of products Americans buy in stores”; 39% believed (wrongly!) that trade agreements actually Will raise the price. Most also agree that trade deals destroy more American jobs than they create. In fact, the opposite is true, with tariffs tending to make U.S. production more expensive, destroying jobs. For example, Donald Trump’s steel tariffs predictably led to job losses in industries that use steel as an input in production.
The survey also found that most Americans believe trade deficits are harmful (a view overwhelmingly rejected by economists) and significantly overestimate the proportion of U.S. imports from China (a view that generally undermines perceptions of trade). views (because most Americans view China with great suspicion). Interestingly, perceptions of the trade deficit change when respondents learn that the money spent on foreign goods is reinvested in the United States (which is absolutely true because Americans buy goods with dollars; therefore, a trade deficit causes current account surplus)).
In summary, views on trade policy vary widely, depending on how the question is asked (depending on whether employment or prices are mentioned). This is similar to public opinion on many other issues that most Americans don’t know much about and don’t necessarily have strong opinions about. Similar contradictions and interrogative effects exist in public opinion about zoning and housing construction restrictions.
Interestingly, the survey found that only 1% of Americans consider trade to be one of their top three most important policy issues (although for some, trade may be “jobs and the economy” and “inflation/prices” as part of broader issues,” both of which were among the highest-rated issues in the survey. This low priority makes it more likely that voters pay little attention to and know little about trade policy.
For free trade advocates, there’s an important tactical point: Voters hate rising prices and will oppose tariffs if they believe they will cause them to rise. The problem with blue jeans is particularly telling – showing that most people will not tolerate modest price increases, even if they are told that doing so will create more jobs. The idea that tariffs would raise prices is at least somewhat intuitive and possible even to relatively ignorant voters.
The idea of emphasizing the price-lowering effects of free trade is far from new. This is how Richard Cobden, John Bright and the British Anti-Corn Law League created perhaps the most successful free trade movement in nineteenth-century Britain. After the repeal of the Corn Laws, Britain’s pro-free trade Liberal Party successfully emphasized price issues over the coming decades.
The Cato/YouGov survey suggests that modern free trade advocates would be better off trying the same tactic. Perhaps we can learn from Cobden, Bright and other old-line British liberals.
Here, Cato public opinion analyst Emily Ekins outlines the significance of some of the survey’s other findings.
Note: In addition to my primary position at George Mason University, I am the Simon Chair in Constitutional Studies at the Cato Institute. However, I was not involved in the conduct of this survey.
