U.S. officials say Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months as its well-trained forces struggle to penetrate Ukraine’s defenses, which are now reinforced with Western munitions.
Throughout the spring and early summer, Russian forces attempted to seize territory beyond the city of Kharkiv and renewed their push into eastern Ukraine to take advantage of the opportunity to capture Avdievka. Russia suffered thousands of casualties in the operation but gained little new territory.
Russia’s problems represent a significant change in the dynamics of the war that have favored Moscow in recent months. Russian forces continued to inflict pain, but the Ukrainians’ hard line slowed their progress.
The coming months will not be easy for Ukraine. But allied leaders gathering in Washington this week to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization can reasonably argue that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.
Michael Kovman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine, said: “Ukrainian forces are stretched thin and will face a tough fight in the coming months, but Russia is now unlikely to win. A major breakthrough.
Leaders at the summit are expected to pledge new funding for Ukraine, announce plans for the alliance to coordinate arms deliveries and strengthen commitments to Kyiv, which will eventually become a formal ally of Ukraine.
This last point became the focus of the war, even more so than the reconquest of territory. While Ukrainian officials insist they are fighting to regain their land, a growing number of U.S. officials believe the war is primarily about Ukraine’s future in NATO and the European Union.
The summit was dominated by concerns over Russia’s acquisition of weapons from Iran, North Korea and China, particularly missiles, drones and their parts.
As a devastating war enters its third year, there are real concerns about Ukraine’s ability to keep its infrastructure, including its power grid, functioning amid long-range Russian attacks.
But the biggest variable may be U.S. policy toward Ukraine after this fall’s presidential election.
While Russia has been unable to seize much of Ukraine, Kyiv’s prospects of regaining more land from the invading army are fading. Pushed by U.S. advisers, Ukraine is focused on strengthening its defenses and penetrating deep into Russian lines.
Eric Ciaramella, a former intelligence official who now works with Coffman at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is an expert on Ukraine, said it has become clear over the past 18 months that Russia and Ukraine “ None of them have the ability to significantly change the status quo.” battle front. “
Siaramela said that the United States has always defined its strategic goal as “a democratic, prosperous, European and secure Ukraine.” Ciaramela and current U.S. officials say the United States and its allies need long-term investments to enable Ukraine to hold its ground, weaken Russia and inflict damage.
“This remains a highly fluid situation,” Mr Ciaramela said. “That is why Western leaders also really need to focus on integrating Ukraine into European and transatlantic security structures. “
The EU agreed last month to start accession talks with Ukraine, a key step in the long process. While NATO is not yet ready to invite Ukraine to join, allied leaders are expected to approve language this week that all but commits Kyiv to become part of the alliance.
The statement was intended to avoid a repeat of last year’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, when leaders declared “Ukraine’s future is NATO” but did not offer any specific invitation. Diplomats called the complex language “word salad” and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky angrily complained about the lack of a time frame for membership.
Before Russia invades in 2022, the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO seems remote. Allies are reluctant to anger Russia or take on what appear to be huge security commitments. Since then, Ukraine’s partnership with the United States, Britain and other European countries has grown, and Western countries have invested billions of dollars in training and equipping Ukraine’s military.
Excluding Ukraine from NATO has been a goal of Russian President Vladimir V. Putin since the war began, a goal that his invasion ironically reinforced possible. In April 2022, peace talks collapsed, with Moscow insisting that Ukraine remain neutral and vetoing any external military aid.
Since then, Ukraine has become more committed to integrating into Europe.
Russia occupied Ukraine’s most pro-Russian regions in the first year of the war. U.S. officials say privately that Ukraine has little chance of regaining all its territory, but that it could insist on further integration with Europe if it performs more strongly on the battlefield.
Some officials say that even without formally regaining territory, Ukraine could still emerge as the victor in the war by moving closer to NATO and Europe.
The officials interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss secret military and intelligence assessments, battlefield positions and sensitive diplomacy.
U.S. officials acknowledge that Russia could make significant gains if a major strategic shift occurs, such as expanding its military recruiting and training programs.
Their forecasts could also be affected if U.S. policy toward Ukraine and Russia changes.
Under the Biden administration, the United States has provided military advice, immediate intelligence and billions of dollars worth of weapons.
Former President Donald J. Trump promised to begin peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if elected. While he did not outline the peace terms he would seek, quick talks could force Ukraine to give up large swathes of territory and abandon its ambitions to join NATO.
But officials say it would be a mistake to call for negotiations to begin now. After months of debate, Congress in May approved about $61 billion in aid to shore up Ukraine’s defenses and halt Russia’s territorial advance.
Throughout the war, U.S. intelligence agencies took a far more pessimistic view of its prospects than did the Pentagon, whose top officials have worked closely with the Ukrainian military to help shape its strategy. But now, the U.S. government’s assessment of Russia’s battlefield prospects appears more consistent.
With supplies of electronic components from China, drones from Iran, and missiles and artillery from North Korea, Russia has acquired enough weapons to keep its military supplied.
But it lacks the personnel to make a major breakthrough.
lala jacks and Anton Troyanovsky Contributed reporting.
