go through Natalie Sherman and Natalie Jimenez, BBC News, New York
Stacey Ellis, a lifelong Democrat from Pennsylvania, should be a trusted constituency for President Joe Biden.
But after four years of rising prices, her support has dwindled – and every time she goes to the supermarket she’s reminded that things have gotten worse.
Ms. Ellis works full-time as a nursing assistant and has a second part-time job.
But she needs to economize. She switched stores, stopped buying name-brand items like Dove soap and Stroman’s bread, and all but said goodbye to her favorite Chick-fil-A sandwich.
Still, Ms. Ellis has sometimes turned to risky payday loans — short-term borrowing at high interest rates — as she contends with a 25% surge in grocery prices since Mr. Biden took office in January 2021.
“Before inflation,” she said, “I had no debt, no credit cards, never took out a payday loan or any of that kind of thing. But since inflation, I’ve needed to do all these things… …I had to radically lower my life.
Rising grocery prices have exceeded the historic 20% increase in the cost of living following the pandemic, stressing households across the country and adding to widespread economic and political discontent.
“I’m a Democrat,” said Ms. Ellis, who lives in the Philadelphia suburb of Norristown. “I love voting for them. But Republicans are talking loud right now and Democrats are whispering.”
“I want someone to help me and help the American people,” she added.
For a president who already faces serious questions about his age and suitability for re-election, the cost-of-living issue poses a major challenge that threatens to reduce supporter turnout in an election that could be like the previous two Elections are also decided by tens of thousands of votes cast in a handful of key states.
Nationally, the average American spent more than 11% of their income on food last year, including restaurant meals last year—a higher rate than at any time since 1991.
Rising food prices have hit particularly hard young, low-income and minority families, who were a key part of the coalition that helped Biden win the White House in 2020.
But concerns about this issue are widespread: Pew survey It was found earlier this year that 94% of Americans are at least somewhat concerned about rising food and consumer product prices.
That’s nearly the same as two years ago, even as the sharp rise in food prices that hit the United States and other countries after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 has subsided.
Dylan Garcia, a 26-year-old security guard from Brooklyn, said he has never been more worried about buying groceries.
Instead of eating the fresh and brand-name foods he once enjoyed, he now stocks up on ramen noodles and frozen vegetables and only eats them twice a day because he can’t afford more.
When it came time to check out, he often used a “buy now, pay later” plan, which allowed him to pay in installments but led to mounting debt.
“I was stuck in a cycle,” he said. “It has become an insecurity to take out my phone at the checkout and have to use these programs. I feel embarrassed when they see me.
Garcia, a long-time Democratic voter, said his precarious financial situation has made him lose hope in politics and he does not plan to vote in the November election.
“I don’t think the government has our best interests in mind, and I don’t think they care,” he said.
The White House insists Mr. Biden has been committed to addressing food affordability and working to increase food stamp benefits and other government aid, but those measures have faced opposition from Republicans.
In last month’s presidential debate, the first question was about inflation, with Biden trying to pin the blame on big companies, accusing them of driving up prices – This statement has caused fierce controversy among economists.
But despite strong job creation and low unemployment, polls show voters still trust Biden’s opponent, former President Trump, on economic issues.
On the CNN debate stage, the Republican White House candidate accused Biden of fueling inflation, which the White House denied, saying: “It’s killing people. They can’t buy groceries anymore. They can’t .
The Trump campaign in turn denies that his proposed policies – including 10% tariffs on all goods entering the United States – will exacerbate price increases, as many analysts predict.
Sixteen Nobel laureates in economics wrote in an open letter last month: “We believe that Trump’s re-election will have a negative impact on the economic status of the United States in the world and have a destabilizing effect on the domestic economy of the United States.
Republicans have accused Biden of trying to mislead the public about the seriousness of the inflation problem, pointing out that Biden falsely claimed that inflation had reached 9% when he took office. It’s 1.4%.
Pennsylvania makeup artist Katie Walsh voted for Trump in 2020 and said she plans to vote again based on his economic record.
The 39-year-old said her family has struggled to keep up with inflation, especially as her business has slowed as people spend less due to higher prices.
“I know he’s a big mouth,” she said of Mr. Trump. “But he at least knows how to manage the economy.”
Analysts say it’s clear the economy is important to voters, but it’s less clear whether it will play a decisive role in November’s election.
In 2022, when inflation was at its peak, Democrats performed better than expected in the midterm elections as concerns about abortion drove supporters to the polls.
This time around, issues like immigration and office qualifications are also top of mind for many voters, while economic trends appear to be moving in the right direction.
Grocery prices have risen by just 1% over the past 12 months, well within historical norms; prices for some items, including rice, fish, apples, potatoes and milk, have even fallen.
There are signs things may continue to improve, with major chains like Target, Amazon and Walmart announcing price cuts in recent weeks.
Some analysts also predict that although wages have risen, they have lagged behind overall price increases, but will eventually catch up this year, further easing pressure.
“We’re on the right track,” said Sarah Foster, who tracks the economy for Bankrate.com. “Wage growth is slowing, price growth is slowing, but you know, prices are slowing much faster than wages.”
Stephen Lemelin, a 49-year-old father of two from Michigan, another electoral battleground, said he was pleasantly surprised to find lower prices on a recent trip to the supermarket.
The veteran said that regardless of his concerns about the economy, his support for Biden, who won the vote in 2020, was never in doubt because he viewed Trump as a threat to democracy.
“Nobody likes high interest rates or high inflation, but that’s not under the president’s control,” he said. “If you understand politics, there’s really only one option.”