Ukraine hopes invading Russia will change war outcome

“All wars end with negotiations. It’s not the soldiers in the trenches who decide when to act.

Arni joined the Ukrainian army in 2022 to fight for the country’s survival. When we met him 30 months later, he described a new motivation. “Peace.”

“Nobody likes war, we want to end it,” he said, leaning on his camouflaged pickup truck.

For the troops we encountered near the Russian border, they wanted an end to the Russian invasion on acceptable terms.

That’s not to say survival isn’t a core driver – it is, in fact – but they seem to be struggling towards the finish line.

“For the sake of Ukraine, for the sake of our people, we will stay the course,” Arni added.

Before August 6, Ukraine’s only goal was liberation. From before Russia’s first invasion in 2014, Russian forces were completely pushed back to its borders.

Although progress has been slow, the situation has reversed over the past year and a half as Moscow has encroached on Ukrainian territory.

Then came the “all-in” poker game that surprised everyone except the battle-hardened Ukrainian soldiers who performed it: a counterattack against Russia’s Kursk region.

“This is undoubtedly successful and bold,” commented Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, a think tank.

Now, Kiev cannot often mention its offensive, with countless photos of troops tearing down Russian flags and delivering aid.

“This also changes the narrative,” said Alina Frolova, a security expert and former Ukrainian deputy defense minister. “It’s not good that we’re losing territory step by step.

“Ukraine’s strategic position has changed.”

Despite similarities to Russia’s initial invasion, Kiev claims its goal is not occupation.

So what’s the purpose? Well, not just one.

“Part of the purpose of this attack is to give the city of Samui better protection,” explained Serhii Kuzan, who believes that people often forget that the border is still a frontline.

President Zelensky said that since early summer this year, the Kursk region alone has launched more than 2,000 attacks on the Sumy region, including 250 glide bombs.

There have been concerns for months that Russian forces were preparing for a cross-border attack of their own, and Serhiy believes it would be easier to defend Ukraine overall by pushing back Russian forces.

“this [now captured] The Russian city of Suga is at the commanding heights. The Russians were already at a disadvantage because we controlled the approach route.

While Russia has had to respond to Ukraine on the battlefield, its supply lines have also been targeted. Major roads have been captured and a strategic bridge destroyed.

This leads us to:

“The main purpose of this attack on Kursk is to divert Russia’s attention from its occupied territories in Ukraine,” said Ivan Stupak, who worked in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) from 2004 to 2015. .

The good news for Ukraine is that this appears to be happening. The bad news is that Russian progress, especially toward the town of Pokrovsk, is not slowing down.

“The Russian army has been redeploying some troops from different directions, such as the Kherson, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions,” Ivan said. He believed around 10,000 people had been transferred, mostly from other parts of Russia.

This is how President Zelenskyy described Ukraine’s collection of captured Russian soldiers.

Historically, when Ukraine has momentum, it seizes more stuff, making it easier to negotiate its own stuff.

The Kursk Offensive was no exception. Kiev said hundreds of Russian soldiers were captured. Some people can be seen in drone footage surrendering and being taken back to Ukraine blindfolded with duct tape.

“Moscow actually offered to start negotiations on a prisoner exchange,” Serhiy Kuzan said.

“It is no longer us who are rallying support from Qatar and the UAE to demand that Russia hand over our prisoners of war.”

This is a big part for Kiev.

On a civilian level, the Kursk region is fearful and angry at Ukraine’s onslaught on their homeland.

There were massive evacuations, pleas for help and criticism of some authorities for not stopping the attack.

On a political level, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the events in Moscow publicly while being briefed by security chiefs.

And of course there is the military dimension.

“The impact of this invasion of Ukraine could be quite significant,” Alina Frolova concluded. “That’s why using highly specialized forces is particularly the right decision.”

If Ukraine does not intend to keep the Russian territory it occupies for long, but is able to hold on long enough, it hopes to use it to free up its own land.

But that’s a big “if.”

This always suited Russia’s size advantage when fighting slowed down. Misdirection and surprise often work for Ukraine.

“In a symmetrical war, we have no chance with Russia,” Alina Frovola pointed out. “We need to act asymmetrically.”

Slow progress in the Kursk region could leave Kiev facing difficult decisions.

But Sethi Kuzan believes that as long as there is exercise, it will bring benefits.

“For exchanging forward units with reserves, an advancement rate of 1-3 kilometers per day is normal,” he said. “In the Donbass region of Ukraine, the Russians’ average advancing speed is 400m.

“Our pace in the Kursk region is five times faster than that of a hundred thousand troops!”

But the problem for Kyiv is that the Russians are still moving forward in Ukraine.

However, don’t expect Ukraine to back away from its attacks on Russia anytime soon.

It’s committed now.

The Russian president initially called the offensive a “terrorist attack” and a “provocation” but has made little public reference to it since.

Although Russia’s invasion was a defensive war to protect its people, this fits his narrative.

Perhaps he didn’t want the alarm felt by many in the Kursk region to spread or make his troops appear unable to control the situation.

Moreover, as with last year’s Kursk submarine disaster and failed coup, Vladimir Putin has not always moved quickly to regain the initiative.

Ukraine hopes he won’t this time, because he can’t.

Additional reporting by Hanna Chornous, Sophie Williams and Hanna Tsyba