Russian President Vladimir V. Putin will visit North Korea on Tuesday for the first time in 24 years after vowing to take relations with Pyongyang to new heights and work together to combat what he calls the United States’ ” Global Neocolonial Dictatorships”.
The war in Ukraine has brought Putin closer to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who has won new status in the Kremlin by opening his vast arsenal to Moscow.
After Kim arrived in Russia’s far east on an armored train nine months ago, the two met at Russia’s Cosmodrome to celebrate their “holy struggle” with the West. The North Korean leader invited Putin for a return visit during a visit to sensitive Russian rocket and fighter jet facilities.
Now, the Russian president has accepted his offer. The deepening relationship between the two authoritarian leaders poses special challenges for Washington. The United States has relied on Moscow’s cooperation to curb North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Now it faces a challenge from the Kremlin, which seeks to undermine U.S. geopolitical interests around the world.
Footage released by Russian state media showed huge Russian flags and portraits of a smiling Putin lining the streets of Pyongyang as North Korea prepared to welcome the Russian leader.
What does Russia want?
Before traveling, Putin issued an order authorizing the conclusion of a new “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement with North Korea.
He also published an article in North Korea’s main newspaper, Rodong, praising Kim for resisting “economic pressure, provocation, blackmail and military threats from the United States” and thanking Pyongyang for its strong support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Victory over Ukraine has been a guiding principle of Russian foreign policy for more than two years, and Putin’s first priority on this trip will be to ensure that North Korea continues to cooperate to help him achieve his battlefield goals.
North Korea is one of the world’s poorest and most isolated countries, but it has one of the most powerful militaries.
The exact scope of North Korea’s military aid to Moscow’s war is unclear. Many analysts said the contribution makes sense because the Russian military needs more ammunition in its war of attrition against Kiev. Russian forces have made recent territorial gains against Ukraine, in part because they have been able to expend more munitions.
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said in an interview with Bloomberg last week that Seoul has tracked at least 10,000 containers, which can hold up to 4.8 million artillery shells, being shipped from North Korea to Russia. The minister predicted that Putin would make more demands during his visit.
Ahead of Kim’s visit to Russia last year, U.S. intelligence agencies reported that Moscow had purchased millions of artillery shells from North Korea. Since then, the United States has accused Russia at the United Nations of launching multiple ballistic missiles into Ukraine.
But doubts about the quality of North Korea’s supplies have emerged. Kiev officials say Russia launched about 50 North Korean ballistic missiles into Ukrainian territory last winter and that the weapons had a high failure rate.
Burgeoning ties with Moscow are already paying dividends for Pyongyang. In March, Russia vetoed the annual update of a U.N. panel of experts that has been reviewing North Korea’s sanctions violations for 15 years. The move underscores a dramatic shift in Moscow’s stance toward Pyongyang after years of involvement in U.N. disarmament efforts.
Ahead of the expiration of its mandate, U.N. monitors confirmed that debris from a January attack on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv came from a North Korean missile and said the arms transfer violated the U.N. arms embargo against Pyongyang, Reuters reported . The embargo prohibits the import and export of weapons.
Putin is unlikely to admit that any ammunition or weapons were transported during the trip. Russia denies any military transfers that violate the U.N. embargo.
Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri V. Ushakov told reporters at a news conference on Monday that the two leaders would discuss energy, transportation, agriculture, economics and security issues during the visit.
Putin is also due to visit Vietnam later this week, underscoring the Kremlin’s tendency to challenge U.S. interests even in countries where Washington has been improving relations with the United States. The Russian leader’s visit follows President Joe Biden’s visit in September.
What does North Korea want?
Kim Jong Un’s grandfather came to power and founded North Korea in 1948 with the support of Moscow.
Warming ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have led to the collapse of international efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear and missile ambitions and raised questions about future enforcement of sanctions.
Questions have arisen since the two leaders met last year about what Kim Jong Un receives in return for supplying Moscow with ballistic missiles and much-needed artillery shells.
Beyond that, the conflict provides Pyongyang with a rare opportunity to evaluate the performance of its missiles in actual combat and potentially refine their designs.
North Korea also welcomes greater access to Russia’s advanced military technology, including its vast satellite knowledge. Two months after Kim Jong Un visited Russia last year, North Korea put its first military reconnaissance satellite into orbit, a launch that South Korean officials said received technical assistance from Moscow.
Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and one of the most advanced submarine programs, as well as a range of other technologies of interest to North Korea. Despite years of disarmament efforts by Washington and the United Nations, Pyongyang has conducted six nuclear tests and developed intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States.
Isolated from the rest of the world due to international sanctions, North Korea has a range of needs beyond the military realm that Moscow can help meet. South Korean officials said Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, was supplying grain and raw materials as well as weapons-making parts.
In an article published in the Rodrigo daily before the visit, Putin said Moscow would support North Korea in fighting “a cunning, dangerous and aggressive enemy” by deepening economic relations and establishing a new trade settlement system free of U.S. interference.
Ushakov said that the trade volume between Russia and North Korea in 2023 will reach $34.4 million, nine times that of last year. He said the summit would discuss restoring humanitarian ties that had been suspended during the pandemic due to North Korea’s strict rules.
