Ukraine’s progress tarnishes Putin’s ‘Mr Security’ image

Kursk.

It was one of the first words I ever wrote and uttered as a BBC journalist.

In 2000, I reported on the sinking of the Kursk submarine in the icy waters of the Barents Sea. One hundred and eighteen submariners were killed.

Vladimir Putin has been president for less than half a year. I still remember Russian TV channels slamming him for his handling of the disaster.

This week marks the 24th anniversary of the sinking of K-141 Kursk. Moreover, the word Kursk appears again in my emails from Russia. This time, it has been nine days since Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack on the Kursk region and seized territory there.

Same sentence.

But Russia 2024 is very different from Russia 2000.

This time, there was no sign of criticism of President Putin on Russian television; no questioning of his decision-making; no suggestion that it was his invasion of Ukraine that led to this dramatic moment. Then again, the Kremlin has spent a quarter of a century exercising tight control over Russian media and messaging.

Even so, will these events damage Vladimir Putin?

I’ve been asked this question many times over the past two and a half years:

• In 2022, Ukraine sank the Moscow warship, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
• Months later, it happened again after Russian troops withdrew from northeastern Ukraine in a flash
• Armed mercenaries marched on Moscow during the 2023 Wagner Rebellion, a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin’s authority.

President Putin has been through it all, apparently unscathed. He is confident he can overcome this latest challenge.

But here’s the thing. Wagner’s mutiny was over in one day.

Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia has been going on for more than a week. The longer this goes on, the greater the pressure on Russia’s leadership and the greater the potential damage to President Putin’s authority.

During his two and a half years in power, Putin has established an image as “Mr. Security.”“The only person in this vast country capable of ensuring the safety of Russians.

The so-called “special military operation” (a full-scale invasion of Ukraine) he presented to the Russian people was a way to enhance Russia’s national security.

Two and a half years into this war, there aren’t many signs of “safety and security” here.

There are more NATO presences on Russia’s borders, and Sweden and Finland have joined the NATO alliance; Russian towns are regularly attacked by Ukrainian drones; and now Ukrainian soldiers are occupying Russian territory.

Vladimir Putin is trying to show the Russian public through his choice of language that there is no need to panic.

When referring to the invasion of Ukraine, he avoided using the word “invasion.” Instead, he spoke of “the situation in the border areas” or “ongoing events.” Kremlin leaders also called Ukraine’s offensive a “provocation.”

What will the Russian president do next?

Don’t expect him to pick up the phone and call Kyiv. Russian officials have made clear they are shelving the idea of ​​peace talks in the wake of the attacks in Ukraine.

Not that any large-scale negotiations are planned.

In fact, this week leader Vladimir Putin announced his intentions precisely: “…to force the enemy to leave Russian territory.”

Saying it is one thing. Doing it is another story. Despite deploying reinforcements to the Kursk region, Russian forces have yet to regain control of the area.

As I walked past the Kremlin on Thursday morning, I stopped in my tracks.

Edith Piaf’s classic as workers set up seating and screens for an event No, I don’t regret anything (No, I Don’t Regret) is playing on the big screen and echoing around Red Square.

It was a very surreal moment.

Vladimir Putin has shown no sign of regret for launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

He has no regrets about the decisions he has made since.

If his public statements reflect his current state of mind, he still sees only one possible outcome to the war: Russian victory.