In 2011, former Israeli Prime Minister Barak Barak warned that Israel would face a “diplomatic and political tsunami” if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was not resolved as peace talks stalled and revolution spread across the Middle East.
To Israeli foreign policy analysts, the tsunami has never seemed closer.
The United Nations-affiliated International Court of Justice on Friday ordered Israel to suspend military operations in Rafah, southern Gaza, adding to a growing body of diplomatic and legal action against Israel that has undermined its international standing.
Days earlier, prosecutors at the International Criminal Court, another international tribunal, called for the arrest of Israel’s prime minister and defense minister, a move backed by some of Israel’s long-standing partners, including France.
The order comes the same week as three European countries took coordinated steps to recognize Palestine as a state. The move follows widespread protests on U.S. college campuses against Israel’s actions in Gaza, Turkey’s decision to suspend trade with Israel, and Belize, Bolivia and Colombia’s decision to sever diplomatic ties with Israel.
“This is not the level of isolation of North Korea, Belarus or Myanmar, but it is isolation,” said Alon Pincus, the former Israeli consul general in New York. “That creates a huge sense of stress.”
The ICJ’s latest move may not have an immediate practical effect: Under the terms of the order, Israel has a month to show how it complies with its directives. Even if Israel ignores this order, the ICJ has no way of enforcing it. In theory, the UN Security Council could issue a resolution on the matter, but Israel’s most powerful ally, the United States, has a permanent seat on the council, allowing it to veto any measures against Israel.
But Itamar Rabinovich, Israel’s former ambassador to Washington, said that overall, the actions against Israel showed not only the decline of Israel’s international reputation but also the weakening of U.S. influence as the United States became increasingly unable to stop the United States. allies and international institutions no longer target its main partners in the Middle East.
“The rules of international politics have changed,” Mr. Rabinovich said.
“The rest of the world is defeating the United States,” Rabinovich said, adding, “They say, ‘We can’t defeat you at the United Nations, but we now have two international tribunals and we will turn to these courts.'” A place of control.
Against this backdrop, Israel’s other staunch allies, such as the United States and Germany, have adopted a more critical stance toward the Israeli government, even as they try to defend it from foreign condemnation.
In the second week of the war, President Biden flew to Israel with a clear message: “You are not alone.” But in recent months, he has expressed growing concern about Israel’s counterattack in Gaza, saying The strategy was “wrong” and some of the behavior “outrageous”.
He also suspended the delivery of bombs to Israel, demonstrating his opposition to Israel’s plans to invade the center of Rafah.
There has also been a subtle shift in Germany’s position, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz asking during a visit to Tel Aviv in March: “No matter how important the goal, does it justify such a high cost? “
Still, Israel may feel able to continue the war as long as the United States maintains most financial and military aid. In April, Congress voted to provide an additional $15 billion in military aid to Israel, underscoring Washington’s continued actions generally in favor of Israel despite the verbal reservations expressed by some U.S. leaders.
Biden will need to weigh any further action against Israel and its political costs. While a tougher stance could boost his standing in the eyes of his left-leaning base, it could also allow Republicans to paint themselves as a better ally to Israel. For weeks, Speaker Mike Johnson has said he intends to invite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress.
However, within Israel, measures targeting his government could bolster Netanyahu’s support, analysts say. The court ruling prompted ministers in his government to unite in a united front just days after they spoke out against Mr Netanyahu’s leadership.
Pincus, a former diplomat, said condemnation from foreign governments and institutions also provides Netanyahu another opportunity to project himself as a defender of Israel, shoring up his declining domestic support.
“It feeds into his narrative that the world is against us and I’m holding my head high,” he said.
Still, Netanyahu’s critics say Israel’s standing would be higher if he had not squandered the goodwill he expressed toward Israelis after the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7.
Opposition to Israel’s war actions has been fueled in part by controversial comments from government ministers, who have called on Israel to maintain permanent control of Gaza and even drop an atomic bomb on the territory. Israeli security services also frequently fail to prevent Israeli civilians from impeding aid convoys and looting their cargo.
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized the court’s ruling, noting that “Israel is a country that has been subjected to brutal attacks from Gaza and is forced to defend itself against a horrific terrorist organization.” But he also said the ruling could have been avoided if “a sane and professional government had stopped the crazy rhetoric of ministers, stopped the criminals who were burning the rescue trucks, and carried out quiet and effective political work.”
Israel’s isolation has extended to culture and academia, with calls for a boycott of Israeli artists and universities growing for decades.
In recent months, universities in Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia and Spain have announced they have cut ties with their Israeli counterparts or are considering doing so.
“We want to send a clear message that the war the State of Israel is now waging in Gaza is unacceptable and undermines the democratic foundations on which all universities must build,” the University of Southeast Norway said in a statement in February. It ended ties with the two universities. Exchange program at an Israeli university.
In February, thousands of artists signed an open letter calling on organizers of the Venice Biennale, one of the art world’s most important festivals, to ban Israel from this year’s gathering.
Although the festival ignored the petition, the Israeli team competing in the country chose to close its display to the public until a ceasefire was reached. But that failed to quell opposition to their presence, with more than 100 protesters – some of them artists participating in the biennale – marching through the festival grounds in April, chanting “Long live Palestine”.
Jonathan Rice Contributed reporting from Tel Aviv and Jonathan Rosen From Jerusalem.
