As Ukraine’s second-largest city prepares for a new Russian offensive, a growing number of NATO allies have backed Kyiv’s request to allow its forces to use Western weapons to strike on Russian territory.
Just days after Canada decided to allow the use of weapons it supplied, President Joe Biden decided to let Ukraine use U.S. weapons against Russian military targets in an effort to weaken the Kharkov offensive. More than a dozen countries have issued similar licenses to Ukraine.
As Ukraine’s most important arms supplier, the United States has been reluctant to take this step for fear of angering Russia and escalating the situation, thereby dragging down NATO and triggering a wider war. Without Washington’s approval, the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) can only attack Russian targets in Ukraine.
However, many Western leaders and military analysts say that with Russia amassing thousands of troops on its side of the border, less than 20 miles from the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukraine urgently needs access to Western weapons to attack those inside Russia. that power. U.S. officials said President Joe Biden’s approval was only for Ukraine to attack military bases in Russia used for the Kharkov offensive.
“Russian commanders are well aware that Ukraine is unable to fight back,” Peter Dickinson, a Ukraine analyst at the Atlantic Council in Washington, wrote in an analysis published before Biden’s policy change.
Officials and experts say launching missiles at Russia to hit its troops, bases, airports and supply lines could have immediate benefits. In fact, the Ukrainian military appears to be preparing to launch some preliminary strikes “to test Russia’s response,” Rafael Los, a weapons expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview Thursday.
Los said Ukraine and its NATO allies have been unwilling to take the risk of changing tactics without U.S. approval. “If Russia escalates its actions significantly, such as against NATO territory, the United States will ultimately bear a large share of the responsibility for the response.”
Below is a list of countries that have allowed Ukraine to use weapons on Russian territory and those that have not yet allowed Ukraine to use weapons, as well as the possible repercussions if Ukraine were to gain the freedom to fight Russia.
Those who support attacks on Russian soil
Each country that supplies weapons to Ukraine has the right to regulate how the weapons are used, and so far the UK, Canada, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Poland have expressed support for the Ukrainian attack Military targets on Russian territory.
Some countries are more cautious than others. For example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday that ratification by Germany and Sweden would be limited to “within the framework of international law.” He elaborated on demands to arm Ukraine that other countries have also insisted on over the past two years, albeit less prominently.
The UK was one of the first countries to advocate easing restrictions. “Ukraine has this right,” Foreign Minister David Cameron said during a visit to Kiev on May 3. “Just as Russia has launched attacks inside Ukraine, you can totally understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it can defend itself.”
The movement got a boost when a strong endorsement from French President Emmanuel Macron helped persuade a more reluctant Germany to reconsider its stance this week. “It’s as if we are telling them: ‘We give you weapons, but you cannot use them to defend yourself,'” Macron said this week in Berlin, with Scholz at his side.
Those calling for a “cautious” approach
Many countries, including Belgium, Italy and the United States, have said they are not prepared to let Ukraine use weapons against targets in Russia, citing the unpredictable risks. For example, Ukraine recently used its own drones to attack Russia’s nuclear early warning radar system, a potentially destabilizing step that has caused deep concern in Washington.
On Monday, Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni said NATO allies “must be very cautious” before Western weapons are used on Russian soil. A day later, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced a donation of 30 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, but only “for use by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on Ukrainian territory.”
In Washington, a White House spokesman insisted on Tuesday that the Biden administration would not “encourage or permit” the use of U.S. weapons on Russian soil. But that resistance has softened in the face of growing pressure from allies, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying the next day that the United States may “adjust and adjust” its stance depending on battlefield conditions.
The Biden administration had long resisted Ukraine’s demands for more powerful weapons, but finally caved under pressure and as Ukraine’s prospects seemed bleak. This happens with weapons such as the ATACM missile system, the Abrams tank, and the F-16 fighter jet.
But a senior Biden administration official said the United States has allowed Ukrainian forces to use Patriot anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down Russian fighter jets operating in Russian airspace on a limited basis.
possible impact
With permission, Ukraine can use British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles and France-supplied closely related SCALP missiles to attack Russia. The missiles have a range of about 150 miles and are launched from Ukraine’s aging fleet of Soviet-designed fighter jets.
Several countries, including Britain, Germany, Norway and the United States, have supplied Ukraine with land-based launchers capable of firing long-range missiles. These systems, known as HIMARS and MLRS launchers, can also launch U.S. ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 190 miles.
“If they approve the use of ATACMS, it could undermine Russia’s ability to use its territory as a haven for ground operations,” Mr. Los said.
(Germany has so far refused to donate its 310-mile-range Taurus missile, in part because of fears it could be fired deep into Russia and escalate the war. That is even less likely now, Mr. Los said.)
In addition, the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States have also provided Ukraine with medium-range missiles or land-based small-diameter bombs that can reach Russia 50 to 90 miles away.
But the new authority could have the biggest impact in the war for air superiority — especially if allies allow their donated jets and drones to launch attacks in Russian airspace.
It is unclear whether Denmark or the Netherlands will allow the F-16 fighter jets they have sent to Ukraine to fly over Russian territory, otherwise they may be shot down. In comments this week, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren appeared to place no specific limits on the weapons the Netherlands could provide. “I have never ruled out the possibility of a Ukrainian attack on Russian territory,” she said.
At least four other countries – Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and North Macedonia – have supplied Soviet-era fighter jets. Britain and Türkiye have sent long-range attack drones that can also fly directly into Russia.
At the very least, the incoming fleet of F-16s will be equipped with long-range missiles that can target Russian fighter jets “from behind the border,” Los said, which has implications for Ukraine’s future air power.
“We are not there yet,” he said, noting that Ukrainian pilots have not yet mastered the aircraft and have sufficient skills to counter Russia’s superiority. “But there is a possibility that Ukraine’s future fleet of F-16s could attack Russian territory.”
Eric Schmidt contributed reporting from San Francisco, and Edward Wong From Prague.
