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Crude oil futures fell throughout the day and week ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, with the group widely expected to maintain production cuts beyond the second quarter.
“Weak fundamentals have narrowed the group’s decision to one key objective Rebecca Babin, senior U.S. energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, wrote that the focus is on how long the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut will be extended, not if. The impact of extending production cuts by three months and will “React negatively to anything less“.
Mukesh Sahdev, senior vice president at Rystad Energy, told Dow Jones that OPEC+ is likely to outperform third-quarter fundamentals and “is unlikely to find support for easing production cuts in the short term,” noting that OPEC has a more optimistic view on growth than the EIA and IEA, while The “actual reality” of oil flowing into the market may be higher than the statistics… It is difficult for OPEC+ to ignore this.
Before the meeting, there was a twist, Financial Times Says Saudi Arabia has summoned some OPEC+ oil ministers to Riyadh; OPEC spokesman said Sunday’s meeting is still planned to be held online, adding that some ministers have also met with Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz ·The possibility of bin Salman participating together.
Reuters reported on Thursday that OPEC+ members were considering an agreement to extend some production cuts until the end of 2025.
Nymex front-month crude oil for July delivery (CL1:COM) ends the week -0.9%fell 1.2% on Friday to $76.99/barrel, with front-month July Brent crude oil (CO1:COM) closing this week -0.6%down 0.3% on Friday to $81.62 per barrel.
Additionally, the recent month July Nymex Natural Gas (NG1:COM) has ended -6.7% This week, including Friday, it rose 0.6% to $2.587/MMBtu.
ETF:(New York Stock Exchange: Use), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (NRGU), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (COLD), (UNL), (FCG)
The U.S. gasoline market is showing signs of weakness at the start of the summer driving season, when it typically recovers strongly, analysts said, clouding the outlook for oil demand ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, Reuters reported.
U.S. gasoline demand fell about 2% last week to 9.15 million barrels per day, leading to an unexpected build in gasoline inventories and sending gasoline futures to a three-month low even as refineries increased operating rates to the highest level in nine months. .
The spread between gasoline futures and U.S. oil futures, a measure of refinery gasoline profits, also fell to a three-month low on Thursday; Citi analysts wrote on Friday that lower refinery profits could lead refiners to cut output.
“Weak refined product markets could lead to lower prices across the complex, including crude oil,” Citi said.
Analysts said rising oil inventories in recent months amid weak fuel demand have strengthened OPEC+’s case for extending output cuts at the meeting.
Energy sectors, as shown in the Energy Select Sectors SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLE), complete the week +2%.
Top 10 gainers in energy and natural resources over the past 5 days: Meta Materials (MMAT) +38.8%Critical Metals (CRML) +32.5%Hallado Energy (HNRG) +31.2%Newcastle power supply (SMR) +30.9%TPI Composite Materials (TPIC) +29.5%Flux Energy (FLNC) +24.3%Stealth Gas (GASS) +23.4%Maritime Castor (CTRM) +22%Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) +21.3%Permanent Resources (PPTA) +16.5%.
Top 5 Energy & Natural Resources Declines in the Past 5 Days: Most Important Lithium Resources (FMST) -16.9%Atlas Lithium (ATLX) -12.8%Piedmont Lithium (PLL) -11.4%Lithium Americas (LAC) -10.8%Rex American Resources (REX) -10.2%.
Source: Barchart.com
