Iran’s president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian defied expectations to win the presidency as a wildcard candidate, beating hardline rival Saeed Jalili.
Mr. Pezeshkian stands out because he is a “reformist.” But not liberal, democracy-loving reformists in the general sense.
In Iran, “reformists” are one of the ideological factions of the Islamic Republic’s ruling elite.
They are Islamists like their conservative rivals but believe a more moderate version of the regime’s ideology would better serve the ruling clergy and Iranian society.
The reformists led the government from 1997 to 2005 and became part of a de facto coalition during the 2013-2021 presidency of Hassan Rouhani, a centrist conservative.
They often call for a freer, more democratic society.
But in the 2024 elections, unlike the previous reformist government in the late 1990s, their campaign did not promise a freer, more democratic society.
Since the 1990s, Iran has experienced multiple waves of dissent and oppression. Even the reformists themselves faced severe political repression, with many prominent figures spend time in jail over the past twenty years.
Despite their membership in the establishment, it is widely acknowledged that they lack influence over key centers of power, such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Supreme National Security Council.
When Pezeshkian prepared for a presidential bid when hardline former President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May, he chose to run against Hassan Rouhani. ) followed a very similar strategy in 2013: focusing on the economic difficulties the country has faced for years due to Western sanctions.
As part of the campaign, Pezeshkian recruited the country’s former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who helped with the strike nuclear deal 2015.
In his manifesto, Pezeshkian declared that his foreign policy is “neither anti-Western nor anti-Eastern.” He criticized former President Lacey’s policy of drawing the country closer to Russia and China, and insisted that the only way to resolve the economic crisis was through negotiations with the West to end the nuclear standoff and ease sanctions.
During the campaign, however, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticized these ideas. Khamenei called those who believe prosperity can be achieved through a friendlier relationship with the United States “deceived,” noting that the United States, not Iran, has achieved prosperity. withdraw from the nuclear deal.
Under Iran’s constitution, Khamenei is the main decision-maker; an 85-year-old Shiite cleric who became a revolutionary in 1979 and climbed the ladder of power to become head of state in 1989. For ten years, he has actively supported a doctrine called “Look East,” which means ending the old non-alignment policy and tilting the global stage toward China and Russia.
One of the most important aspects of Iran’s policy in the region is the operations of the Quds Force, the external force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The President does not have any direct control over them, and only the Supreme Leader can determine their actions.
Mr Khamenei has said repeatedly, including three days before the first round of elections, that the Quds Force’s operations are crucial to the country’s security doctrine.
So while Pezeshkian talks about a different foreign policy that is more friendly to the West, there is little chance that Iran’s activities in countries such as Lebanon, Syria and Yemen will change.
Still, the president is Iran’s highest-level diplomat, and the foreign ministry can help formulate and implement policy.
They have the opportunity to push their vision through behind-the-scenes political lobbying, as happened in 2015 when then-centrist President Hassan Rouhani persuaded hardliners, including Khamenei himself, to accept the deal.
Furthermore, the government could significantly influence public discourse and pursue policies that may not be entirely consistent with Khamenei’s positions. These nuances are the reformists’ only hope of delivering on their promises and tearing down what Pezeshkian calls “the walls that hardliners have built across the country.”