South Africa is heading for great change.
Exactly what that change will look like, and whether it will alleviate the many hardships faced by South Africans, remains a million-dollar question.
The African National Congress (ANC) has enjoyed a sizable electoral majority since South Africa’s democracy began in 1994, but it won only about 40% of the vote in last week’s election. The poor result means it is now in talks with rival parties to become partners in forming a government.
“In desperation, I wonder what choices they will make,” said Bhekindlela Cebekhulu, 40, a Soweto theater actor.
Sebekhulu asked whether South Africa would soon have a white president, or whether a party promoting socialism would seize ownership of his house. . Above all, he said, he was concerned about former President Jacob Zuma’s threats to amend the constitution.
The country’s top legislative body, the National Assembly, must meet and elect the president within two weeks of Sunday’s formal announcement of the election results.
African National Congress officials say they want leader President Cyril Ramaphosa to remain in office. Mr Ramaphosa’s fate may depend on negotiations.
South Africa appears to be following two paths.
The election results may prompt the African National Congress and those who enter the country’s government to be more active in tackling the poverty, unemployment, crime and inequality plaguing the country, lest they lose further support. Alternatively, political polarization and bickering may deepen, meaning little can be done to address the problem.
Hlengiwe Ndlovu, a governance lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, said the new government should at least “take a step in the right direction”. But she added that if there were political imbalances, the country could “fall into chaos, violence, collapse”.
Here are the key leaders shaping South Africa’s future and the impact they may have.
Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress
The big question for Mr Ramaphosa, 71, and his party is what arrangement they prefer. All of this comes with risks.
They can work with the Democratic Alliance. But this could isolate some of their core supporters in black townships and rural communities, as the Democratic Alliance has been staunchly opposed to policies that give blacks preferential treatment in employment and ownership.
Another option is for the ANC to reunite with Mr Zuma, who once led the party but helped form a new party to compete against his former allies in this election. But bringing Zuma back on board could undermine the ANC’s position that it is rooting out corruption that has been endemic within its ranks for years. Zuma, a bitter enemy of his former deputy Ramaphosa, was forced to resign in 2018 amid serious corruption allegations.
The party could also turn to another former member, Julius Malema, who was a firebrand youth leader before being expelled. Mr Malema founded the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters party a decade ago. While Mr Malema’s socialist stance is embraced by some within the ANC, it could push the party in a direction it does not want to go.
The possibility exists to govern simply as a minority government. This means that the ANC will negotiate with other parties on specific issues. Some have also suggested forming a “government of national unity” that would include all parties in parliament.
Party secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said on Sunday that all options were open. But it won’t be forced into bad arrangements, he said: “We’re talking, but we’re not begging.”
John Steenhuisen and the Democratic Alliance
The DA has been one of the ANC’s harshest critics, hurling personal insults at its members and taking it to court over some of the laws it has passed.
The party, led by Steenhuisen, 48, who is white, gave up on more diverse leadership after losing white conservative votes. It leaned into some of the issues espoused by the far right – issuing a press release deploring, without evidence, a “dramatic rise” in the murder of farmers and advocating for Stellenbosch University’s continued use of Afrikaans .
Still, in some respects the DA-ANC alliance makes sense. The party won nearly 22% of the vote, becoming the second largest party. The current ANC leadership generally advocates a centrist economic approach similar to that of the Democratic Alliance. Big business is likely to welcome the alliance. Analysts say the partnership could protect and strengthen state institutions. Analysts say the DA has a strong record of functional governance in the Western Cape, the fourth-largest province, and could serve as a check on government corruption.
The two parties are likely to clash over policies to eliminate the racial disparities created by apartheid, as well as over foreign policy. The Democratic Alliance firmly supports the Western Allies. The African National Congress emphasizes the importance of the West but also promotes strong partnerships with countries such as China, Russia and Iran.
Former Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon, who was part of the team leading the party’s coalition talks, said voters would abandon their reservations for the ANC if they believed it would produce a more effective government. They also want the parties of Mr Zuma and Mr Malema to be driven out of power by the left-wing economic policies they pursue.
“I can absolutely guarantee that 80 percent, or even more, of DA voters will say, ‘Make some reasonable arrangements with the ANC,'” he said.
Such a deal could mean compromise on policies important to the ANC. The Democratic Alliance also pledged to abolish affirmative action “because it only enriches a small, connected elite,” according to its manifesto.
Jacob Zuma and MK
Mr Zuma’s umKhonto weSizwe party, or MK, is just six months old and is the election’s most alarming spoiler. It came in third, winning nearly 15% of the national vote, the most votes ever received by a political party since its inception.
MK supports a rigid platform: expropriate all land without compensation and bring it under state control; abolish the current constitution; create a chamber for traditional ethnic minority leaders in parliament; and reverse the renewable energy transition, moving toward coal and nuclear power.
But many analysts say Zuma, 82, appears less interested in policy and more interested in punishing Ramaphosa and his party. Although Zuma leads the People’s Party, he was recently disqualified from serving in parliament following a criminal conviction for failing to testify before a corruption inquiry – a charge he claims was politically motivated by Ramaphosa’s government motivation.
Some political analysts and political opponents say Zuma also hopes to gain state power to resolve some legal issues. He faces criminal corruption charges stemming from an arms deal when he was vice president nearly two decades ago.
MK officials have called for Ramaphosa to resign as a condition of any coalition arrangement, but the ANC has so far rejected the demand.
Analysts say a major concern is that if the two parties join forces, it will essentially be a return to the factionalism and corruption that have made the ANC ineffective in running government.
Electoral analyst Ibrahim Fakir of the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracies in Africa said voters “are looking for better functioning, they are looking for better performance of current policies”.
Julius Malema and the Economic Freedom Fighters
Mr Malema has softened his rhetoric in some respects, but his demands are no less bold. Last week he made demands of his coalition partners: expropriation of land without compensation within six months; creation of a state-owned bank and cancellation of student debt within 12 months; free water and electricity for all welfare recipients; and a “no partners who become puppets or representatives of Western imperialist agendas.
But the 43-year-old leader has lost some influence amid his party’s disappointing performance in the polls. Its approval rating is down about a percentage point from the last election in 2019, to about 9.5%.
Still, as a former ANC member, he has allies within the organization. His style of politics has attracted a faction within the party who believe the current leadership has not done enough to combat the economic disparities plaguing black South Africans.
Fakir said that while investors might initially be alarmed by the partnership between the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters because of Malema’s left-wing stance, those fears were overblown. Fakir said the alliance would not bring about the more dramatic changes Malema was seeking.
Instead, he said, “the current welfare state is likely to intensify”. He said the two sides were likely to negotiate something similar to a reconstruction and development plan. Fakir said this was the public spending program adopted at the end of apartheid and was “a slightly more radical version of the Marshall Plan”.
