The president has been coy about whether he will debate a Republican opponent. But if he passes, he will be the first president since Richard Nixon in 1972 to skip the debate process entirely.
Given repeated questions about his age and ability to serve another four years, a move to sidestep a presidential confrontation could convince the public that he is not up to the task.
In fact, he was able to set the terms of the debate in his favor. Both events will be hosted by CNN and ABC News, rather than Fox News, thus avoiding debate moderators with an overt right-wing slant.
The June debate will be held at CNN’s Atlanta studios without a live audience, which may also work to the president’s advantage, as his audience is less enthusiastic than that of his former president. It also ensured Mr Biden would not be disrupted by pro-Palestinian protesters, which has been a campaign concern during recent public appearances.
The early timing of the first debate — breaking with tradition and taking place before the summer party nominating convention — could also help Biden in many ways.
First, it would give his team the opportunity to frame the election earlier as a binary choice between Trump and Biden. Biden’s advisers have long believed that Democratic support would solidify as the public becomes increasingly aware of the possibility of Trump being re-elected as president.
Second, if Biden performs poorly, the June debates will give him more time to recover. Current presidents — from Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama — have a history of uneven first debates. If Biden follows this trend, he has several months to rebound, including a carefully prepared Democratic National Convention speech.
Of course, there are risks to the plan. If he’s still behind in October, there won’t be any high-profile debates to change the situation, with tens of millions of viewers. There’s also a chance he’ll struggle, which could lead to second-guessing his decision to play. If he seriously falters in June, it could solidify the public perception that he’s not up to the task, and no convention speech or multimillion-dollar ad campaign will change that.
