Why Modi failed to win an absolute majority

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to run for a third consecutive term, and the election is more intense than expected.

His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks set to fall short of a majority and holds a slim lead in the 543-seat parliament, short of the 272 needed. However, its coalition partners gained more seats.

The results are a personal blow to Modi, who has enjoyed an electoral majority and dominated the country’s politics for a decade as chief minister of the state of Gujarat and prime minister of India.

The verdict marks an unexpected resurgence of India’s Congress-led opposition alliance, defying earlier predictions of its decline and showing a sharp divergence from both exit polls and pre-election surveys.

More than 640 million people voted in the seven-week marathon election, which was hailed as a “world record” by election authorities. Nearly half of voters are women.

Many world leaders have crossed the finish line in third-term elections, and Modi is no exception. The Bharatiya Janata Party remains the party with the most seats in India, and if Modi wins a third term with his allies, the prime minister will equal the record of India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.

However, Modi’s party lost more than 50 seats, making a third term less attractive, especially considering that Modi’s campaign goal is to obtain 400 alliance seats, and any reduction in seats seems less than ideal.

This led to jubilation in the Congress camp and some disappointment in the BJP camp. Even as the BJP emerged as the largest party, the burden of hype and expectations left many supporters frustrated.

Modi’s supporters believe that winning a third term can be attributed to several factors: a stable governance record, the appeal of continuity, efficient welfare programs and the perception that he has improved India’s global image.

Modi made key manifesto promises to his Hindu nationalist base: revoke autonomy from Indian-administered Kashmir, build a Ram temple in Ayodhya and impose a controversial citizenship law. Many BJP-ruled states have implemented laws tightening regulations on interfaith marriages.

The sharp decline in the BJP’s seats may be related to unemployment, rising prices, rising inequality and Controversial Army Draft Reforms, among other things. Mr Modi’s A harsh and divisive campaignElections targeting Muslims in particular could also alienate voters in some areas.

His ambitious slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar” aimed at winning more than 400 seats for his NDA alliance may backfire as such a huge majority raises concerns among the poor over constitutional reforms.

Modi’s party has suffered its biggest setback in Uttar Pradesh, a state larger than Britain and with three times the population. UP has 80 assembly seats Have significant influence in national politics – Many consider it the gateway to Delhi. Both Mr Modi and Rahul Gandhi have seats there.

So what are the main takeaways from this election?

The erosion of Modi’s brand

Modi’s popularity is also down to his mastery of branding, turning everyday events into spectacle and savvy messaging. A weak opposition and a largely friendly media also helped him build his brand.

The election results showed that the Modi brand has lost some of its luster, suggesting that even Mr Modi is susceptible to anti-incumbent influence. In other words, he’s not as invincible as many supporters believe. This gave the opposition new hope.

Return to coalition politics

India has a tumultuous history of coalition governments, although some coalition governments played an important role in implementing economic reforms in the early 1990s and 2000s.

If the BJP forms government, it will rely on allies and will need to adopt a more consultative and deliberative approach.

This dependence can easily break down if allies feel neglected. Unlike in 2014 and 2019, the Communist Party, once seen as all-powerful, now relies on its allies.

A blow to the dominant Bharatiya Janata Party

Modi’s decade-long uninterrupted reign at the top underscores India’s embrace of what some political scientists call a one-party system of rule.

It has five key characteristics: a charismatic leader, unparalleled control of resources and communications, unparalleled organizational machinery, and a chaotic opposition. The curtailment of freedoms is also a feature of systems of one-party rule.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is not the first party to dominate Indian politics. For many years after independence, the Congress Party continued to rule uninterrupted. Tuesday’s results return India to what many consider “normal politics,” with multiple parties sharing and vying for power.

Opposition resurgence

The results will energize the much-criticized Congress-led opposition.

In February this year, the Diversity Alliance India (short for National Alliance for Inclusive Development of India) faced turmoil when one of its key leaders, Nitish Kumar, quit but later rejoined the Bharatiya Janata Party.

But under Rahul Gandhi, the opposition ran a fierce campaign and narrowed the gap in the face of less partisan media and resources.

There is more hope for their future. The BJP holds about a third of India’s more than 4,000 state assembly seats and has previously lost to regional parties. Over the next 14 months, five states will hold elections – all of which are likely to be hotly contested.

The BJP is likely to face tough competition as it will contest elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana this year. The upcoming elections in Delhi may pose challenges, while Bihar in October poses a regional hurdle.

So what does a potential third term for Mr Modi mean?

India needs more work and some healing.

The economy is rising, driven by government spending. However, inequality is growing. Private investment and consumption must increase, and there needs to be more money in the pockets of the poor and middle class to spend more money.

This won’t happen if there aren’t enough jobs. In a country rife with ambition and frustration, young voters – about two-fifths of India’s more than one billion people are under the age of 25 – are likely to break away from the BJP.

Modi has drawn criticism for marginalizing Muslims, India’s largest minority who have borne the brunt of the violence. His government faces accusations of stifling dissent, with key opposition figures jailed on what they say are trumped-up charges.

But third terms for many leaders often prove to be bumpy, with unforeseen and unpredictable events derailing governments and their plans.